James Talarico Sees 28-Point Swing in Texas Trump Stronghold: Private Poll - Newsweek
Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has seen a massive 28-point swing in vote share in Texas State Senate District 9, compared to President Donald Trump's numbers in 2024, according to a new private poll acquired by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report.
The turnaround is another sign that Republicans are, for the first time since 1988, seriously in danger of losing a Senate race in the state.
Talarico, a Democratic state lawmaker, is facing off against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn in May to secure his party’s nomination after gaining Trump’s endorsement in the bitterly fought contest.
Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave into the majority in both the House and Senate in November so that they can dramatically restrict Trump’s ability to pass legislation in the final two years of his second term.
On Monday, the Quorum Report published what it called an internal Republican poll showing Talarico with 52 percent of the vote in Texas State Senate District 9. Paxton had 41 percent, giving Talarico an 11-point lead.
In 2024, Trump defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by 17 points in the district, so the internal poll reveals a huge 28-point move away from the GOP compared to the last presidential election.
Texas State Senate District 9 includes areas of Tarrant County, including a sizable chunk of Fort Worth.
The polling numbers comes after the district was already the site of a huge political upset in January when Democrat Taylor Rehmet beat Republican Leigh Wambsganss by over 14 points in a special election, the first time the district had voted blue since 1991.
The poll of 600 likely voters in the district was conducted between September 10 and September 15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Quorum Report noted that, unusually, they had published the results of a poll “without revealing how we got the numbers and without publishing the polling memo.”
The outlet added, “It’s not our usual MO [modus operandi] and it frustrates professional pollsters. When to do it, it’s a judgement call, for sure. We’re doing it again today but not without first offering a prime example of how it can help your understanding of the shape of a campaign.”
Last week, Talarico led Paxton in eight different polls, the first time he led with all of those pollsters, as an Emerson College survey conducted between September 12 and September 14 gave the Democrat a one-percentage-point lead, 47 percent to the attorney general’s 46 percent.
A new Siena College/ReconMR poll published on Thursday, conducted from September 8 to September 11, put Talarico ahead of Paxton with 49 percent of the vote to 43 percent.
Talarico has become the favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets. Kalshi gives Talarico a 59 percent chance of victory, versus 41 percent for Paxton, while Polymarket puts the Democrat at 62 percent versus just 39 percent for his GOP rival.
The numbers come as both sides ramp up fundraising. According to Federal Election Commission filings, Paxton recently received another $5 million from MAGA Inc., the main pro-Trump political action committee.
Paxton has long been controversial even within Texas Republican circles and was impeached in 2023 by the GOP-dominated Texas House after being accused of misuse of power, though he was later acquitted by the state Senate.
In May, an endorsement from Trump helped push Paxton past the finish line against Cornyn in the Republican primary. Cronyn had been in the Senate since 2002.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Cannon and Geoffrey Rowland.
