James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton Hits High in Four Trackers - Newsweek

Democratic hopeful James Talarico’s chances of defeating Republican Ken Paxton in the closely watched Texas Senate race have reached new highs across four election and prediction trackers.

Talarico, a Texas state representative, is running against Paxton, the state attorney general who defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff, for a seat that has long been in Republican hands. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years.

A Talarico victory could also provide Democrats a significant boost as they try to take back the majority in the upper chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats need to defend all their seats and flip four others to regain power.

An election roundup shared on X by InteractivePolls showed The Economist giving Talarico a 58 percent chance of winning, compared with Paxton’s 42 percent. Decision Desk HQ’s model and VoteHub's Senate forecast both placed Talarico’s probability at 55 percent and Paxton’s at 45 percent.

The Polymarket prediction market has Talarico at a 56 percent chance of winning compared to Paxton's 45 percent as of Tuesday. Unlike an opinion poll or statistical forecast, the Polymarket figures represent prices set by traders buying and selling contracts tied to the election’s outcome and can change continuously.

Newsweek has contacted campaigns for Talarico and Paxton, via email, for comment.

The rising numbers for Talarico have developed over several months rather than in response to a single survey. Decision Desk HQ’s historical series began May 28 with the Democrat at 43 percent and fell as low as 40 percent in June and July. His probability reached 50 percent for the first time on August 7, climbed to 51 percent on August 12 and hit 55 percent on August 28.

The model then slipped to 52 percent on September 9 before jumping back up to 55 percent the following day. It fell again to 53 percent on September 11 and rebounded to 55 percent on September 14, matching a high for the Texas state lawmaker.

Decision Desk HQ says its forecast gives a 45 percent weighting to polls, 30 percent to fundamentals and 25 percent to prediction markets. Its polling average now places Talarico approximately 4 points ahead, while the model’s projected election margin is narrower, at about 2 points. The difference reflects the model’s consideration of Texas’ Republican baseline and other structural factors alongside current surveys.

VoteHub’s movement has been more pronounced.

When the organization introduced its midterm forecast on May 4, it classified Texas as “Tilt Republican” and gave the GOP a 58 percent chance of winning. Its subsequent shift to a 55 percent Democratic probability amounts to a 13-point increase in Talarico’s chances and moves the race across the model’s 50 percent threshold. VoteHub says its forecast incorporates polling, political fundamentals, historical results, candidate information, expert assessments, prediction-market signals and machine learning.

The Economist’s forecast has Talarico’s probability hitting the highest point in its published trend line, while Polymarket’s Texas Senate market shows a sharper recent rise driven by trading. Polymarket recorded Talarico at 54 percent on September 14 before the contract advanced another 2 points, with more than $1.2 million traded in the market overall.

The four readings are not independent polls. The forecasting models draw, at least in part, from an overlapping collection of public surveys, and some also incorporate prediction-market data—meaning movement on Polymarket can feed into a model such as Decision Desk HQ’s. Their convergence therefore shows that several methods are responding to the same increasingly competitive race, rather than four separate groups of voters independently producing the same result.

Texas has not voted a Democrat into the Senate since 1988 and has long been considered a Republican stronghold. Democrats have ridden the ebbs and flows in the state, but have not been able to get over the hump in a statewide election. A win would be a major pickup for Democrats on a Senate map that was once considered unfavorable.

The race has seen a flood of money, with Talarico building a substantial fundraising advantage over Paxton. Campaign finance reports covering activity through June 30 show that Talarico raised approximately $68.6 million and ended the period with $21.5 million in cash, according to the Federal Election Commission. Paxton raised about $9.2 million and had $1.8 million available, FEC filings show.

That disparity has prompted Republican groups to spend heavily on Paxton’s behalf.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leaders, committed $43 million to the race, according to an Associated Press report, while groups associated with President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have also intervened. MAGA Inc., Trump’s principal political organization, separately launched a $10 million advertising campaign in Texas—its first major expenditure of the midterm cycle, according to the AP.

At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Trump called Paxton “our greatest attorney general” and urged donors to support him.

Paxton carries strong support from Trump’s political movement but also carries vulnerabilities that have concerned some Republicans. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on allegations that he abused his office to assist a political donor, although the state Senate acquitted him.

Newsweek previously reported on how 21 current and former Republican officials endorsed Talarico through the Republicans for Talarico coalition, including former Dallas Mayor and U.S. Representative Steve Bartlett, former Representative Adam Kinzinger and retired Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Phillips.

Democrats need to defend all their seats and flip four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber. Texas has presented them with a chance at a seat in a state that backed Trump by more than 13 points in 2024. Other key Democratic targets include Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio and Iowa.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Geoffrey Rowland.