Latvian PM’s election win boosts chances for pro-Ukraine coalition

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List has won the country’s parliamentary election by a wide margin, putting the pro-Ukraine leader in a strong position to remain in power.

With almost all votes counted following Saturday’s election, the center-right United List won around 35% of the vote — more than 20 percentage points ahead of the far-right Latvia First party, led by veteran politician Ainārs Šlesers, who opposes restrictive tariffs on Russia.

Preliminary results released on Sunday put United List on course for 42 of the 100 seats in the national parliament.

Despite the decisive victory — far stronger than pre-election polling suggested — Kulbergs will still need to negotiate with other parties to form a majority government.

Two partners in his outgoing coalition, the conservative National Alliance and center-right New Unity, cleared the 5% threshold and are set to return to parliament. They appear to have enough seats for a majority without the Union of Greens and Farmers, which fell below the threshold.

That gives Kulbergs a solid path to another pro-Ukraine coalition without having to seek support from Šlesers’ Latvia First, an option that had loomed over the election campaign, which was marked by high inflation, uncertainty around the troubled national airline airBaltic and instrumentalized migration orchestrated by Russia and Belarus.

Kulbergs became prime minister in late May after his predecessor, Evika Siliņa, stood down following a backlash over stray Ukrainian drone strikes. 

The final stretch of Latvia’s election campaign also spilled into Brussels last week, where Kulbergs initially opposed an EU deal to remove Russian billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the bloc’s sanctions list.

Latvia ultimately abstained, allowing the broader sanctions regime to be extended after a compromise among EU countries.