LGE 2026 | Rigging claims and anti-migrant posts raise fears of polling station clashes - IOL

CABC flags 79 harmful posts ahead of local government elections.

Claims of election rigging and allegations that foreign nationals could influence South Africa’s local government elections have sparked concern ahead of Wednesday’s polls, with some social media posts urging people to confront migrants at voting stations.

The Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change (CABC) has warned about potentially dangerous online narratives after recording 79 harmful posts over a seven-day period, including a call for people to gather at polling stations to prevent foreign nationals from voting.

The findings are contained in the organisation’s latest factsheet on online conversations surrounding the local government elections, scheduled for November 4.

The CABC’s High-Risk Events Monitoring programme tracked 79 potentially harmful posts between October 22 and 29. Of these, 51 were classified as mis- or disinformation, 33 as hate speech and 12 as incitement to violence.

The categories overlap, meaning individual posts could fall into more than one classification.

The posts attracted approximately 546,600 views, 29,600 likes, 4,100 shares and 1,350 comments, according to the monitoring data.

The organisation cautioned that the findings reflect potentially harmful content rather than independently verified evidence of coordinated activity or impending violence.

One of the key narratives identified by the CABC involved allegations that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) could manipulate election results.

Social media users questioned the commission’s credibility, with some posts alleging collusion between the ANC and the IEC.

Others suggested that delays in announcing results could create opportunities for vote manipulation, while some questioned whether an ANC or DA victory could occur without rigging.

One post alleging collusion between the ANC and the IEC attracted 95,500 views.

The CABC stressed that questioning electoral institutions or expressing distrust in the election process does not automatically amount to misinformation.

However, it warned that unsupported allegations presented as facts could undermine public confidence in the electoral process.

“Claims that the count is rigged hand people a ready-made explanation for any result they dislike,” the organisation said.

Another prominent narrative involved claims that foreign nationals were being used to influence electoral outcomes in favour of the ANC and other political parties.

Posts alleged that South Africans were being replaced by foreign nationals, while others claimed that the Department of Home Affairs was issuing identity documents to foreign nationals in Cape Town.

The latter allegation attracted 35,000 views.

Other posts suggested that migrants would be used to dilute South Africans’ votes.

The CABC described these claims as unsubstantiated, warning that they conflate immigration status with eligibility to vote and risk deepening hostility towards migrant communities.

The organisation raised particular concern about posts that could encourage confrontation around voting stations.

One post urged South Africans to gather at polling stations on November 4 to prevent foreign nationals from voting for the ANC and EFF. It attracted 3,366 views.

Another alleged that foreign nationals were being mobilised to campaign for a political party.

The CABC said the posts did not establish that organised intimidation or violence was imminent but warned that unverified claims about migrants participating in elections could fuel confrontations.

It distinguished lawful election observation and political mobilisation from discriminatory targeting, threats and interference with voters.

Beyond the 79 potentially harmful posts, the CABC recorded more than 15,310 election-related mentions from 6,426 unique authors between October 22 and 29.

The volume of discussions increased steadily from October 25, with illegal immigration emerging as the leading topic.

Online users expressed frustration with government immigration policies and what they perceived as attempts to suppress protests over immigration.

Other discussions focused on criticism of governing parties and concerns about the IEC’s preparations for the elections.

The CABC said 77 of the 79 potentially harmful posts were recorded on X, with one each originating from TikTok and Facebook.

It cautioned that the sample was heavily skewed towards X and therefore could not be regarded as representative of South Africa’s broader online conversations.

The classifications were also provisional and did not constitute independently verified findings.

The organisation said further assessment would be necessary before drawing conclusions about the extent, coordination or real-world impact of the narratives.

The monitoring drew on social media and online news data collected through Brandwatch and SentiOne, covering platforms including X, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and Reddit.