London Playbook PM: Westminster looks West

Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.

— Westminster is mulling what a post-midterms weakened Donald Trump could mean for the U.K.

— The consensus is the final chapter of his chaotic administration could be the biggest MAGA rollercoaster so far.

— Andy Burnham insisted his chat about a slavery apology did not make life difficult for King Charles.

— A senior MEP suggested Britain could rejoin the EU while dodging the euro and Schengen travel zone.

— A local Reform leader and HQ official has been charged with 35 offences including rape, the BBC reports.

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WESTMINSTER LOOKS WEST: The British government and wider SW1 biome are biting their nails over U.S. elections that could dictate the dénouement of the Donald Trump White House.

Quite a big deal: All 435 seats in the House (where most laws are proposed) are up for election in the midterms, as are 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate (where laws are approved or blocked). Both are Republican-held at the moment, with slim majorities. But winning control of one chamber would give the Democrats the power to propose their own laws, while seeking to block Trump’s agenda. It would also raise the prospect of investigations into the Trump administration and even impeachment.

It goes without writing in a niche political newsletter: The results will also be interpreted as a verdict from the American public on the Trump administration.

The math: Democrats would need to win at least 218 seats in the House to take control, and end up with at least 51 seats in the Senate. The current balance in the Senate is 53 Republicans to 45 Democrats, plus two independents. So the Democrats would need to come out of the elections with an extra six seats.

Main character energy: Despite Americans taking zero interest in the parochial backwater that is Great Britain, Westminster is mulling what a Republican or Democrat win could mean for the U.K. “It does make a difference,” Labour MP and Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry told Playbook PM.

And that difference is: “He will be severely restricted in what he can do at home,” Thornberry said about a weakened Trump. “So therefore he’s likely to focus on the international situation.” She added: “I don’t think he’s going to make any great peace deals. But he might spend time stomping about and throwing his weight around.” Plus ça change.

Indeed: Ed Roman, a former comms boss at the British embassy in Washington, said Trump could be more inclined to seek the “news agenda dopamine of big international moments, set pieces, or unexpected overseas forays” if “the domestic picture is grotty and the House seeks to tie the administration in congressional knots.” He said the U.K. must continue to work with the administration and “respectfully disagree” where needed, but be braced for chaos.

The route to peace is war and rampage, natch: “He is determined for history to see him as a president of peace, but he will be absolutely ruthless about the pathway to achieve that,” said Sophia Gaston, a senior foreign affairs expert at King’s College, London, and Oxford. “For Britain, we must accept further turbulence in conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East, as the president tries to force them to a conclusion by whatever means is necessary.”

On which note … senior U.K. officials will head to Brussels tomorrow to meet U.S. negotiators alongside representatives from France, Germany, the EU and NATO in a bid to make progress on Ukraine peace talks, my colleague Esther Webber confirmed. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said the talks would be part of the build-up to a summit next week in Abu Dhabi.

Back to the midterm speculation: Conservative MP Iain Duncan-Smith, a vice-president of the British-American Parliamentary Group, argued the results won’t make much difference. “I don’t think it will change anything because he’ll still be in power in the White House,” he told Playbook PM. “I think it’s difficult for him to become less predictable,” IDS added. “He’s a natural disruptor and revels in disrupting, and that will carry on.”

Indeed ii: “To some extent, the practical impact of the outcome of the midterms is limited because President Trump has intentionally sought to govern through executive power even when he’s held both chambers,” Gaston agreed. But she countered that Congress dictates government funding, and noted the risk of Democrat investigations consuming Trumpian attention. “The president will regard this as akin to small dogs nipping at his heels more than a fundamental constraint on his actions,” she said.

What Britain thinks: Brits reckon Trump is (and this will shock readers) bad for the U.K., according to polling for POLITICO from PF Global. A mere 17% said his presidency has been good for Britain, compared with 55% who think the opposite, the numbers suggest. Even 38% of Reform voters think Trump has been bad for Britain, compared with 27% who think he’s been good — which explains the other parties seeking to exploit Nigel Farage’s love for and ties to the Orange One. Overall, some 40% of Brits want the Democrats to win the midterms, compared with 15% preferring the Republicans, according to the poll.

The sad thing is … a third of the public reckon British politics is becoming more Americanized (15 percent said the opposite) due to rich donors, culture wars and rage, among other likenesses. So we might have our own Trump, soon enough. Usual polling health warnings apply, obv. Our Noah Keate has a full writeup here.

Has the American public had enough as well? As my Washington-based colleague Jack Blanchard wrote in his Forecast newsletter, “a president whose refusal to follow any kind of campaign strategy has left his party all-but certain to lose the House of Representatives, and fighting for its life in the Senate.”

What a campaign it’s been: “From the outset Trump undermined stalwart Republican senators who crossed him, putting safe GOP seats in play,” Jack continues. “He repeatedly dismissed voters’ concerns about affordability as a ‘hoax,’ telling them prices had already come down. He spent huge amounts of presidential time and energy on beautifying the White House and the surrounding square mile, as Americans struggled with the basics of life. And he started a war in Iran — having vowed not to do so — that sent gas prices through the roof.”

Noooooope! Asked whether Andy Burnham wanted to wish Trump luck as the Republicans bid for votes in the midterms, a spokesperson for the PM said: “The midterms are obviously a matter for the American people.”

Centrist dads watch party: Burnham and his top Foreign Office team are of course in Antigua and Barbuda with fellow left-leaning middle power leaders including Canada’s Mark Carney and Australia’s Anthony Albanese. No doubt the lads will clink the Antigua and Barbudan equivalent of a Cruzcampo should the Democrats appear to be mogging Trump — although of course embarrassment for Trump will be bittersweet for the lefties who will need to deal with the potential blowback detailed above.

Gritted teeth: “It’s really important that I keep that connection with him,” Burnham told ITV’s Dan Hewett about Trump, as part of the ‘Burnham: Inside the first 100 days’ show ITV is airing at 7.15 p.m. tonight. “We don’t clearly agree on everything, but it’s important that in a very challenging world that there is a U.K./U.S. relationship and a dialogue, and I’ve been working hard to work at that.”

How to watch the midterms like a pro: See Jack’s full guide to watching the results here — or just go to sleep like a normal person and find out what happened tomorrow.

STILL TO COME: Andy Burnham will face a short TV interview this evening as the CHOGM-fest gets going proper over in the Caribbean. He’s been to the grand opening event and held a few bilateral meetings, and will attend a reception this evening and submit to a few on-air questions around 7.45 p.m. U.K. time.

Save the date: It’s still not clear whether the apologies he wants to deliver for the slave trade will come at this summit or not — with indications it could be postponed until Britain is hosting the G20 in 2027.

Worth bearing in mind: King Charles gave a little speech at the CHOGM opening event this afternoon, in which he touched on the slavery issue but didn’t apologize for the British role. “As I have said before, that shameful chapter of history is one that fills my heart with horror and my soul with the most profound personal sorrow,” he said. He argued improved access to education, opportunities and trade are routes to “address the wrongs of the past.”

Landing the King in the Ship: ITV royal correspondent Chris Ship managed to ask Burnham during the trip whether his plans to apologize had delivered Charles a pain in the rear end. “No, we’re reaching out and listening,” Burnham said. “The aim has been to bring people together and we think in the end that will is more positive.”

Where there’s a will: Burnham chatted “next steps” on his “structured dialogue” about the slave trade with Barbadian PM Mia Mottley this morning. The No.10 readout said the PM “set out how the UK wanted to reset international financial frameworks for debt through the UK-hosted G20 next year.” So that could be the landing zone for all this.

Attempting to spoil the landing zone: “The purpose of the apology is to make us look weak,” Kemi Badenoch told reporters at her defense event on HMS Wellington this morning. “And once we start looking weak, then we have every man and his dog making demands and sending us an invoice, which the British taxpayer has to pay.”

And there’s more: Badenoch added that teaching kids British wealth was “built on the back of evil things like slavery and colonialism [would be] lying to them.” Instead, she said, British wealth was built on “classic old school liberal values” like freedom and free markets. Cue Conservative calls for a GCSE in Thatcherism.

Now watch: Burnham coming a cropper while playing cricket.

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STILL TO COME II: No.10 Political Director Hayden Munro is appearing at an in-conversation event in parliament that the Labour Progressive Policy Network is hosting. The 5.30 p.m. to 6.30 p.m. appearance is “massively oversubscribed,” according to organizers. Munro has been warming up the past couple of weeks with briefings for Labour MPs, who have been filing into No.10 in regional groups.

LET THEM PICK CHERRIES: Foreign Affairs Committee Chair in the European Parliament David McAllister suggested that the EU should grant the U.K. opt-outs over the euro and the Schengen travel zone if it wants to rejoin the bloc. He told ITV Borders Pol Ed Kieran Andrews the U.K. could be deserving of special treatment, having been a member for almost 50 years. “Anyone with common sense in Brussels would take the most pragmatic view and show a level of flexibility that is needed,” he said. 

Reminder: He made the comments after our Jon Stone revealed the EU is open to allowing Britain back in on similar terms. 

Nearer-term problems: Jon writes in his Ex-Files newsletter that deals with Brussels on food standards, emissions trading and youth visas are all likely to get over the line at the upcoming EU summit on Nov.20, with draft texts largely concluded. Issues still up in the air (like student fees) are expected to be covered in the political statement and worked out later.

More spoiling attempts: Kemi Badenoch warned at her defense event that the new SPS deal could “make things worse, not better.”

Other views are available: But in an interview with Economist Political Correspondent Hugo Gye, Andy Burnham said the Treasury has done some new internal analysis suggesting a deal at the summit could add 0.4% to British GDP (up from 0.3%). “Now, that is a number you cannot ignore,” the PM said. 

VERDICT 1: Independent MP James McMurdock was cleared by the Commons standards committee over allegations he instigated an “N-tower” (a racial slur) below a post on social media. McMurdock argued that posting a single letter “N” beneath another post showing a black reporter and Nigel Farage was an accident. The committee said it did not have “sufficient evidence” to reach a conclusion about his intentions. 

Verdict 2: But in a related case, the committee found Defense Minister Calvin Bailey did commit a “minor and inadvertent breach” of the rules when he sent a letter to the watchdog urging it to reject Murdock’s denials of racist behavior. 

REVERSE GOLDEN VISAS: Shabana Mahmood remains tight-lipped about how much cash her more relaxed immigration settlement rules will cost — after insisting the original version would save £10 billion. “There will be savings in the billions,” she told Radio 4 this morning — while continuing to kick a precise figure into a future impact assessment. Home Office minister Anna Turley told BBC Breakfast the new rules would still save “at least £1 billion over the next couple of years in terms of welfare savings.” So that’s something. Full writeup here from the Beeb.

COMING AND … GOING: On a related note, Conservative peer and Carpetright entrepreneur Philip Harris has told the Lord Speaker’s Corner podcast that the super-rich should not flee Britain since they have a moral duty to the place that made them. “They should pay our taxes,” he said. “And think: ‘We’ve got to make the U.K. great again’. We need them and I’d like to see a lot of them come back.”  

POUND FOR POUND: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will meet the owners of distressed firm Poundland “to press our concerns and establish the facts,” Business Minister Kate Dearden told the Commons this afternoon. The FT wrote it up. 

**Europe and Canada are deepening ties. What could that mean for U.K. organizations? Join POLITICO’s policy reporters and editors on Wednesday, Nov. 4 at 2 p.m. GMT for an exclusive online Pro Briefing on the summit’s key outcomes, from AI and energy to critical minerals, and what closer EU-Canada cooperation could mean for Europe’s strategic autonomy and the wider policy landscape. Register now.**

COURT CIRCULAR: The leader of Reform UK in Hampshire has been charged with 35 offences including rape and making indecent images of a child, the BBC reports. George Madgwick — who describes himself as a senior campaign manager for the party on LinkedIn — will appear at Portsmouth Magistrates’ Court on November 25. A party spokesperson said Madgwick had been suspended with “immediate effect.”

RED TEAM: A Green councillor in Leicester is the latest to defect to Labour following the passing of the controversial Zionism is Racism motion. Liz Sahu announced her switch the day after Labour ended pacts with Polanski’s party in 11 local authorities, saying she no longer recognises the party she joined. 

WHEN IT’S ALL OVER: The European Commission will host talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and European officials to discuss plans for reconstruction after the war ends. The meeting tomorrow is expected to cover topics including security guarantees and economic support. My POLITICO colleague Gerardo Fortuna has the story. 

YEAR END: Trump says that the U.S. will stop giving funding to Israel at the end of 2026 when an apparent $ 4 billion-a-year deal between the President and Netanyahu will end. The independent reports that it is not clear what package of funding Trump is referring to. 

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Financial empowerment is a fair shot at investing. It means having the confidence, capability and control to make informed decisions about money. Nationally, UK adults hold an estimated £430–610 billion in cash above their emergency savings, often earning materially less than it could if invested over the long term. Modelling commissioned by Lloyds Banking Group suggests that, if 15% of this investable cash moved gradually into balanced investments, digitally enabled guidance and simpler investment journeys could unlock around £40 billion in consumer value over ten years—benefiting around 6.5 million people at target uptake. Lloyds Banking Group is empowering one million people to invest by 2030, with accessible solutions, digital guidance and simpler journeys designed to make investing easier to understand and access. Support should reflect individual goals, circumstances and risk appetite. Investments can fall as well as rise; returns aren’t guaranteed. Lives Empowered. A Nation Empowered. **

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) lead on the U.S. midterms. 

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Reform UK education spokesperson Suella Braverman. 

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former Biden advisor Alondra Nelson … author of foreign interference report Philip Rycroft … U.K. banned commentator Hasan Piker … former Trump spokesperson Steve Cortes. 

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): YouTuber Piers Morgan. 

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Russian defector Alexander Litvinenko’s widow ⁠Marina Litvinenko. 

The Cathy Newman Show (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika. 

The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): The Resolution Foundation’s Ruth Curtice … Conservative peer Daniel Finkelstein. 

Evening Exchange, presented by Steve Baker (Talk, 7 p.m.): Conservative MP Saqib Bhatti. 

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Alex Ballinger. 

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10 p.m.): Journalist Jenny Kleeman and commentator Adam Boulton … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The i Paper’s Katy Searle and commentator Jonathan Haslam.

TAKING THE MIKE: The Adam Smith Institute is hosting one of its Next Generation events with the Spectator’s Economics Editor Michael Simmons, from 6 p.m. Invites needed.

CONTROL GROUPIES: Labour former director of policy Claire Ainsley launches her new book “Control,” from 6.30 p.m. at 10-11 Carlton House Terrace. The event includes a chat between Ainsley and Observer political editor Rachel Sylvester, then drinks until 9 p.m. Invites needed.

BLUNKETT DON’T FLUNK IT: Former Education Secretary peer David Blunkett gives a Royal Society of Arts lecture on AI and learning, from 6.45 p.m.

TANKED ON TRUMP: The Spectator is doing a live podcast recording about the U.S. midterms from 7 p.m. at the Old Queen Street cafe. Tickets here.

HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The Environment Committee has a report out on water reform … the Science Committee has a report out on regulating cosmetics … and the Public Accounts Committee has a report out on restoring parliament.

OVER IN THE CARIBBEAN: The CHOGM summit concludes with the leaders’ retreat. Andy Burnham is expected to submit to another TV clip.

WHAT ELSE THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Waste crime, facial recognition and clinical trials.

OTHER, LEGAL PRO-PALESTINE GROUPS ARE AVAILABLE: A two-day Supreme Court hearing on the proscription of Palestine Action starts.

COURT CIRCULAR: Anti-migrant activist Daniel Thomas, known as Danny Tommo, appears at Westminster Magistrates’ Court charged with entering a restricted zone at a Dover migrant processing center.

HEALTH OF THE NATION: Health Secretary Yvette Cooper faces the Health and Social Care Committee, from 9.30 a.m.

CLASS ACT: Education Secretary Lucy Powell faces the Education Committee, from 10 a.m.

IN THE LORDS: Peers shuffle in from 11 a.m. with the second committee stage debate on the Representation of the People Bill, before closing up for recess until Nov. 9.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs materialize from 11.30 a.m. for Wales questions, First Secretary of State Louise Haigh taking PMQs, the remaining stages of the Sporting Events Bill and carry-over motions for the Railways Bill and Cyber Security and Resilience (Network and Information Systems) Bill. Then it’s recess until Nov. 10.

UNWRITTEN RULES: Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards Daniel Greenberg chats to the Lords’ Constitution Committee about constitutional safeguards, from 11.30 a.m.

BUDGET DON’T FUDGE IT: Office for Budget Responsibility Chair Jonathan Haskel faces the Treasury Committee about the budget, from 2.15 p.m.

LOCK-IN: Prisons inspector Charlie Taylor delivers a lecture at Church House from 6.30 p.m.

SPOTTED: Conservative frontbencher Alex Burghart dropping a fresh sandwich contents-side down on the floor of PCH. He cleaned it up nicely though. Fair play.

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Eggplant, tomato and mozzarella pasta bake with pesto; tuna steak with niçoise salad and egg; BBQ chicken leg with corn on the cob, spring onion, chili and pineapple salsa … The Debate: Macarona bil Laban, baharat lamb, toasted pine kernels, sumac and parsley; roasted ras el hanout hispi cabbage on coriander hummus with Moroccan carrot and chickpea salad; Indonesian kechap manis salmon with turmeric coconut rice and green bean peanut sambal … Terrace Cafeteria: Cottage pie with mustard mash; sesame chicken breast with stir fried hosin noodles, Chinese leaves and pak choi; halloumi burger with caramelised onions, chili jam, rocket and tomato … River Restaurant: Mac and cheese with wedges, smoked cheese sauce and salad; roast gammon with all the trimmings; plaice goujons wrap with chips, tartare sauce and salad.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Nov. 3, 1529 saw the first sitting of the Reformation Parliament, which would break the link between the Catholic church and the state. On Nov. 3 1960, a Labour leadership election took place, in which Hugh Gaitskell defeated a challenge from Harold Wilson … and on the same date in 2016, the High Court ruled that the prime minister did not have the power to trigger the Brexit countdown without a vote in parliament.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Andrew McDonald.

THANKS TO: My editor Luke McGee, reporter Isabel Loubser and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

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