Lula leads first- and second-round scenarios for 2026, survey shows - Valor International

President Lula remains ahead in both first- and second-round scenarios for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, according to a Genial/Quaest poll released Tuesday (16). Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ranks second. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula would receive 46% of the vote, compared with 36% for Flávio. This is the first time the institute has tested the former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son since he officially announced his pre-candidacy.

The poll tested six first-round scenarios. In all of them, Lula leads, followed by Flávio. The president’s support ranges from 34% to 41%, depending on the lineup of candidates, while Flávio’s support ranges from 21% to 27%. The senator’s best performance appears in the scenario in which he runs almost as the sole candidate of the right.

A total of 2,004 people were interviewed between December 11 and 14. The margin of error is two percentage points. The survey was initially scheduled to be released in two stages—government approval ratings on Wednesday (17) and electoral scenarios the following day—but the figures circulated on Tuesday, affecting financial markets and prompting Quaest to bring forward the official release of all results. When contacted, the institute declined to comment.

Flávio confirmed his pre-candidacy on December 5, saying his father had chosen him to represent him at the polls. Bolsonaro is ineligible to run for office and is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup. The institute also asked voters about the former president’s decision. Fifty-four percent of respondents said the choice was a mistake, 36% considered it correct, and 10% did not respond.

The senator joins other right-wing figures planning to run for president. Leaders of parties aligned with the political center reacted skeptically to the former president’s son’s announcement.

The December poll also tested other potential candidates, including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. In the only scenario that included him, Lula reached 41%—the president’s strongest showing. Flávio posted 23%, ahead of Freitas, who had 10%.

The São Paulo governor has never presented himself as a pre-candidate, but he has the backing of segments of the right, which view him as the most competitive option to defeat Lula. To close allies, Freitas has said he would run for president only with Bolsonaro’s endorsement.

Another potential candidate, Paraná Governor Ratinho Junior, was mentioned in three scenarios. In the test where he performed best, Ratinho reached 13%, behind Lula (39%) and Flávio (23%).

In the scenario that added former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes and other right-wing names—with the exception of Freitas—Lula and Flávio posted their lowest figures, at 34% and 21%, respectively. Ratinho held third place with 12%, followed by Ciro at 8%. Next came Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema with 4% and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado with 2%.

Lula would be re-elected in all five second-round scenarios presented by the institute. Against Flávio, the president would win 46% to 36%. In August, Quaest simulated a runoff between the two, when Flávio was not considered a potential candidate. At the time, the senator had 32% of voting intentions, compared with 48% for Lula.

The institute also measured candidates’ rejection rates. Flávio, at 60%, has the highest rejection rate among the pre-candidates tested. In August, when his name was tested for the first time this year, 55% said they would not vote for him.

In the scenario featuring Freitas, Lula would receive 45%, compared with 35% for the governor. The same percentages hold if Ratinho were the opponent.

Gomes is the second-most rejected, at 56%. Lula stands at 54%—three points higher than in October. Ratinho’s (39%) and Freitas’s (47%) rejection rates are lower, but the governors are also less well known among voters.

According to analysts, the Quaest results may provide at least a temporary boost to Flávio’s pre-candidacy. Lula’s position, however, is viewed with caution, as he leads for now but faces obstacles, including high rejection and government disapproval.

“The high rejection rate for Flávio Bolsonaro’s name acts as a ceiling on his polling and campaign progress,” said Murilo Medeiros, a political scientist at the University of Brasília (UnB). In his view, the indicator is difficult to reverse and could undermine potential support from center-right parties. “Insisting on a candidate with high rejection tends to worsen fragmentation rather than unify the right.”

Political scientist Fabio Andrade, a professor in ESPM’s International Relations program, views Flávio’s candidacy as “irreversible,” reflecting a family effort to preserve its “political capital.” He cautions, however, that the numbers require careful interpretation, as the senator benefited from an “overexposure effect” after announcing his bid.

Andrade said parties aligned with the center-right bloc are in a phase of “recalculating” whether to back Bolsonaro’s project, bet on alternatives, or prioritize electing congressional caucuses. He considers a collective shift toward Lula unlikely. “When viewed coldly, the economic results are not bad, but they are not strong enough to generate a level of government approval that inspires full confidence in re-election,” he said.

This article was translated from Valor Econômico using an artificial intelligence tool under the supervision of the Valor International editorial team to ensure accuracy, clarity, and adherence to our editorial standards. Read our Editorial Principles.