Lula Turns Election Around, Defeats Flávio Bolsonaro and Wins Unprecedented Fourth Term - Folha de S.Paulo
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), 80, defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and was reelected on Sunday (25) to a fourth term, an unprecedented feat in Brazilian history. The result, projected by Datafolha at 8h46 p.m., was confirmed by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). at 9h10 p.m. With 99.99% of polling stations reporting, the Workers’ Party candidate had 51.78% of valid votes in the runoff, against 48.22% for the senator, who can no longer catch up. In 2022, Lula defeated his opponent’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, by 50.9% to 49.1%.
The victory comes after a tight campaign in which Lula finished second in the first round, won by Flávio by 47.03% to 45.16%. It is the first time a candidate has managed such a turnaround in the runoff since 1989, when direct presidential elections returned in Brazil. Lula, who will turn 81 on Tuesday (27), is the oldest person to hold the office in the country’s history and has now contested seven presidential elections, winning four.
Election day reflected the tension. Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court extended voting across the country by two hours after the PT campaign complained of obstacles to making public transportation available in ten states. Although the problem had been flagged since early in the day, TSE President Kassio Nunes Marques took no action. It fell to Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s former lawyer, to order the extension. Bolsonaro supporters questioned the decision on social media, but justices on Brazil’s higher courts rule out the possibility of the election being annulled.
During the campaign, Lula only sprang into action after the first-round result, with announcements such as a ban on betting and an increase in Bolsa Família benefits. After spending the first week of the campaign airing grievances with allies, he changed the campaign leadership and handed its digital strategy to Congressman André Janones, who set up the WhatsApp channel "Exército do Lula" ("Lula’s Army"), with more than 10 million followers. Flávio tried to block it with Nunes Marques’s help, but the channel continued operating until the end.
Flávio bet on anti-PT sentiment and the crisis at the top of the judiciary, first over the ties of justices linked to Lula to the Master case, and then over the interference that led to the cancellation of the TV Globo debate before the first round. After winning the first round, he became overconfident: he spoke as though he had already been elected and suggested an obscure constitutional change to "redemocratize Brazil."
The risk of a Bolsonaro returning to power, however, mobilized the left and centrists, with huge and more organic demonstrations that peaked on Paulista Avenue on Saturday, the eve of the runoff election.
Lula will have two months to ease political and economic tensions. He has the support of parties such as Gilberto Kassab’s PSD and the MDB, as well as factions of the centrão, but faces a ticking time bomb in the judiciary, with justices divided between Lula and Bolsonaro supporters, and a strengthened right-wing bloc in the Senate, where impeachment proceedings against Supreme Court justices could be introduced. On the economic front, market unease could grow without signs of austerity.
For the Bolsonaro movement, the defeat opens a struggle for prominence. Without an elected office, Flávio will lose political leverage, while Tarcísio de Freitas, reelected in the first round as governor of São Paulo, is already at the starting line for 2030. Flávio is under investigation over money solicited for "Dark Horse," a biopic about his father, and over alleged links to money laundering involving betting companies. Even so, the Bolsonaro name has proved strong, and polarization will remain alive.
