Map Shows House Districts Most Likely to Flip as Fox News Shifts 15 Races - Newsweek

Fox News shifted 15 House races away from Republicans on Tuesday, as Democrats are hoping to expand the battleground and flip more conservative seats in the midterm elections.

The moves come as President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to fall to new lows in the polls as Election Day inches closer. Democrats have been optimistic about their chances in the House, where they only need to flip a handful of seats to win a majority. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214 seats, so only a few pickups would shift the balance of power.

The update from the Fox News Power Rankings brings five new races into the toss-up category, six races into the Lean R category, three into Lean D and one into Likely D territory. It’s a warning sign for Republicans, only six weeks until the midterms.

The five races that shifted to the toss-up categories include two Florida races held by Democrats that became more conservative in redistricting, Florida’s 14th and 22nd District, as well as Iowa’s 2nd District, Maine’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 4th District.

Here is a look at how all of these ratings have shifted.

In total, Democrats are favored in 215 races, while Republicans have an advantage in 201 seats. An additional 19 seats are true toss-up races where neither party has a clear edge.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have similar forecasts, but some differences. Fox News has fewer toss-up races than either of those. Both The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball had four races classified as toss-ups as of Tuesday.

Here is how those forecasts compare 42 days out from the midterms.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted three races toward Democrats. Florida’s 27th District shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Iowa’s 1st District shifted from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, while Texas’ 9th District was moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

Managing Editor Kyle Kondik in the update compared the environment to 2018, which he said was a “bad year for Republicans” despite no major economic headwinds for the GOP.

“This year, the president’s credibility on the economy is shot, and has been shot for the bulk of his term; the decision to strike Iran has become so unpopular that top GOP Senate candidates, such as Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ashley Hinson in Iowa, are calling on the president to end the war,” he wrote. “Based on these big-picture factors, why shouldn’t 2026 be as bad or even worse for Republicans than 2018 was?”

Recent polls of the generic ballot have shown Democrats improving their standing as Election Day gets closer.

Democrats have led generic ballot polls throughout the year, but some surveys showed a tighter margin that would suggest a blue ripple, rather than a wave. But some of the latest surveys are showing Democrats with a double-digit advantage over Republicans.

Republicans were 14 points behind Democrats, 52 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters in the new poll from YouGov and The Economist, which surveyed 1,401 registered voters from September 18 to 21, 2026.

In a survey from Ipsos and Reuters, Democrats were up 8 points, 43 percent to 35 percent, among 979 registered voters. It was conducted from September 17 to 20, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Quantus Insights poll gave Democrats more than an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,389 likely voters from September 15 to 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Nate Silver wrote in a post to X on Tuesday that polls for Republicans are getting “worse by the day in a way that isn't actually all that common in midterms.”

“It's gotta be mostly the gas prices, although maybe AI anxieties are also reverberating negatively for the GOP,” he wrote.

Liam Buckley, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told Newsweek that the House GOP is “bracing for a wipeout of their own making.”

“They broke their promise to the American people and sent costs skyrocketing with no end in sight. Voters are ready to turn the page, send Republicans packing, and elect Democrats to the House Majority,” he said.

Newsweek also reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email.

Democrats have become favorites in prediction markets to retake control of the House of Representatives.

As of Tuesday, Democrats had a 91 percent chance of flipping the House on Kalshi and a 93 percent chance on Polymarket, a shift in their favor compared to earlier this year.

Democrats had an 85 percent chance of winning control of the House one month earlier on Kalshi. On January 1, Democrats had a 77 percent chance, suggesting that traders are becoming increasingly confident that Democrats are favored to win the House in November.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

Recent House elections have been close, with 2018 being the most recent “blue wave” year, when Democrats picked up dozens of seats during the midterm of Trump’s first term in office. Democrats believe this year could yield similar returns if the president’s approval rating remains low and if these critical toss-up races break their way.

Here is a look at how recent elections have gone.

Polls will continue to be closely watched ahead of November 3. The outcome could be shaped by political developments over the coming weeks, especially pertaining to the economy and cost of living, which are expected to be major issues facing the American public. Trump’s approval rating could also be a key factor in this year’s elections.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Gray R. Thomas