Map Shows States Where El Niño Could Have Biggest Impact This Winter - Newsweek
A forecast points to which parts of the United States could see the most-notable winter impacts from a strengthening and potentially historic El Niño.
The outlook, issued by private weather company AccuWeather, suggests parts of the South and West face heightened risk of flooding. The phenomenon could also lead to drier conditions across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer Pacific waters that can affect temperatures and rainfall around the world. In the U.S., its typical effects can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
Forecasters have said the current episode has already smashed benchmarks, and that it could help make 2027 the hottest on record.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said Thursday a "strong-to-very strong" event is likely through January-March 2027, and that there is roughly a 60 percent chance for a "historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950” for the October-December and November-January periods.
"We can expect a very active subtropical jet stream sending storms [to] the West Coast," AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek after the CPC released its newest update. The Southern U.S. can expect cool and fairly wet conditions, he said.
"The interior Northwest, upper Midwest, Great Lakes and much of the Northeast will have warmer-than-average temperatures, less arctic intrusions [and] less-than-average snowfall," the meteorologist added.
In an email sent to Newsweek on Wednesday, AccuWeather said that, while the event could match or surpass previous strong events, including those recorded in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, similar strength doesn’t necessarily translate to similar impacts.
"Past strong El Niño winters offer clues, but this winter will have its own characteristics. Where storms repeatedly travel will determine which communities face flooding and which mountains build valuable snowpack," AccuWeather long-range expert Chad Merrill said in the email. "Even areas expecting a warmer, less snowy winter need to prepare for potentially disruptive storms."
The outlet said that an "active southern storm track" could deliver regular downpours from the southern Plains through the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic. The lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys could face a heightened flooding risk, and some storms could also spawn severe thunderstorms or even tornadoes, it said.
This winter could also see Western mountains receive more snow than in the last, with regional rivers and reservoirs potentially receiving a boost once that snow melts in spring and summer, according to AccuWeather.
The forecaster also said that much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast regions are set for warmer temperatures and less snowfall than usual, although a "significant" snowstorm could hit late January into February.
In California, AccuWeather said multiple atmospheric rivers—narrow regions in the atmosphere that transport water vapor—could lead to increased flooding and landslides but also deliver heavy snow to the Sierra Nevadas.
"Strong storms could also produce high winds and coastal flooding. In between storms, coastal flooding looks likely along the California coast due to the already elevated water levels due to the very strong El Niño," the forecaster said.
It noted, however, that areas that see the most precipitation could shift due to other atmospheric patterns or Pacific temperatures altering the storm track.
