Map shows the U.S. states hit hardest by Trump's trade war with Canada - National Post
Six of the nine U.S. states that conduct the highest share of their total trade with Canada are along the northern border. Photo by Advancing American Freedom FoundationArticle contentThe ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada escalated again on Tuesday, as the Trump administration’s import ban on certain Canadian goods took effect. And some U.S. states are being hit harder by the dispute than others.
Canada is the U.S.’s second-largest trading partner, after Mexico, and according to a memo from the Advancing American Freedom Foundation (AAF), a conservative public policy organization founded by former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, the annual volume of U.S.-Canada goods trade is US$674 billion.
But just five states account for $284 billion, or 42 per cent, of the total: Illinois, Texas, Michigan, New York, and Ohio. Illinois leads at $76 billion, followed by Texas ($70 billion) and Michigan ($67 billion). New York’s annual volume of trade with Canada equates to $37 billion, while Ohio’s is $34 billion.
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However, the states with the largest overall volume of trade with Canada are not necessarily those most exposed to the economic effects of the dispute.
Illinois, Texas, Michigan, New York, and Ohio accounted for 42 per cent of U.S.-Canada goods trade in the 12 months ending in June 2026. Photo by Advancing American Freedom FoundationArticle contentAnalyst Kat Miller explains in the AAF memo: “A trade war with Canada will negatively impact many (U.S.) states, especially those heavily engaging in trade with Canada, including energy- and mineral-rich states, many heavy-industry dependent states, and our agricultural heartlands.”
She examined the share of each state’s total goods trade conducted with Canada, rather than the volume of trade with Canada, to provide a more accurate picture of which states are most dependent on Canada as a trading partner. Her analysis shows that the states with the highest shares are clustered along the northern border and the plains, with six of the nine highest-share states bordering Canada.
For example, North Dakota and Montana are most exposed to the impacts of the trade war, with Canada accounting for 77 per cent of each state’s total goods trade. They are followed by Maine at 62 per cent, Vermont at 55 per cent, West Virginia and South Dakota at 43 per cent, and Oklahoma at 40 per cent.
