‘Maxi merde’: French presidential campaign rattled by a week of chaos

PARIS — French schools are getting torched. The far right’s brightest star is fighting for his political life after being accused of antisemitic remarks. And economic indicators are flashing bright red to warn of a potential sovereign debt disaster in the country.

The crises that have rocked France in recent days are exacerbating partisan cleavages in the country’s increasingly no-holds-barred presidential campaign.

In the words of one government adviser: “It’s the maxi merde.”

Though that individual, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the current situation, was only referring to the increasingly violent demonstrations outside secondary schools and the government’s slow-footed response to them, it’s a sentiment likely shared by French voters after a week of particularly bleak headlines.

If there are political winners, it’s not immediately clear who they are. Establishment candidates and moderate voices are still struggling to seize the narrative from far-right presidential front-runner Marine Le Pen and her surging far-left challenger Jean-Luc Mélenchon — both of whom want to fundamentally reshape France and its relationship with Europe.

A survey by pollster Odoxa this week found that the French disapprove of the government’s handling of the student school protests, but they also disapprove of Mélenchon and his far-left party France Unbowed’s involvement.

Mélenchon’s allies have joined demonstrators outside schools, saying they were there to show support and protect minors from confrontations with police. But the government and France Unbowed’s political opponents accuse them of fanning the flames of violence — allegations they deny.

“There’s a battle over the narrative” between the political extremes, a Socialist Party adviser said.

Whatever the case, the week’s crises are showing just how nasty the campaign can get with two populist candidates unafraid to stoke partisan divisions leading the polls.

Diversion tactics

The French government has tried to get a grip on the unravelling protests, holding a crisis meeting Thursday and meeting youth representatives on Friday.

“Lecornu is always running behind the crises, he’s always reacting,” said a centrist adviser.

Le Pen, however, blamed agitators for stirring up violence at the protests and accused France Unbowed of “giving a helping hand” to “agents of chaos and insurrection.”

For her National Rally party, the crisis is a useful opportunity to try to convince voters that her party is the best choice for those concerned with public safety.

“We have a government that is incapable of maintaining public order and a left that is stoking the fire,” said National Rally MP Laurent Jacobelli in an interview with POLITICO.

“We are the only legitimate ones when it comes to [security],” he added.

But the unrest is also a useful distraction for Le Pen as her party president and heir apparent, Jordan Bardella, tries to bat down allegations published Monday by investigative outlet Mediapart that he sent antisemitic messages on Facebook Messenger when he was a 17-year-old activist.

Bardella vehemently denied the allegations and vowed to sue Mediapart, but the website on Thursday published another story outlining how it verified the claims, which included screenshots and conversation data downloaded directly from Meta with the help of their sources.

Bardella was tipped to become Le Pen’s prime minister if she came to power, but his future appears to hang on a thread.

“Do we need to unplug him? It’s Marine’s decision,” said a National Rally elected representative. “It all depends on whether the proof is serious.”

But Bardella is no small player, and the National Rally’s opponents are hoping that the fallout of his possible resignation would damage Le Pen’s campaign durably.

Budget trouble

All of this comes just hours after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government introduced a 2027 budget with €43 billion worth of savings designed to reassure markets fretting about France’s massive debt and a stubbornly high budget deficit.

But without a parliamentary majority, getting lawmakers to agree to painful cuts will be tough, even if the specter of a potential financial crisis is starting to loom large. 

Borrowing cost have reached their highest levels since 2008 and the spread between French 10-year bonds and German ones — an indicator that measures investors’ appetite to hold French debt over more traditionally stable German debt — shot above 150 basis points on Friday, a level not seen in years.

One lawmaker from President Emmanuel Macron’s party Renaissance said he doesn’t see how the presidential hopefuls from the political center — former PMs Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal — will be spared the fallout.

“Every minute spent on the budget is a minute spent staring at our incapacity to get ourselves out of the mess,” the MP said.

Meanwhile, Mélenchon has called for his party officials to join more protests planned next Tuesday and protect pupils against alleged police violence. That could propel him to center stage, but it could also backfire if he is seen as taking part in the unrest.

Centrist MEP Sandro Gozi said the allegations against Bardella and the far left’s attitude to the protests “complicate the normalization strategy of the two sides.”

“Both Le Pen and Mélenchon are extremists who are far from fundamental Republican and European values,” Gozi said.

But as Macron’s term winds down, a sense is taking hold that France has been mismanaged and that parts of the country are falling apart.

It’s a perception any would-be successor with links to the current president will struggle to combat on the campaign trail.

Elisa Bertholomey and Sarah Paillou contributed reporting.