McDonald's is the new 'Value Meal,' says trader Mike Khouw

"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore," said the late Yankee great, Yogi Berra, referring to persistent inflation. Fast forward 50 years, and the same might be said of fast food value menus.

McDonald's announced this week that it is revising its U.S. value strategy after recording its slowest sales growth in more than a year. Management is preparing a near-term "bridge plan" built around temporary menu items, national digital promotions and personalized offers aimed at loyalty members. A true return of the "Dollar Menu" is nearly impossible given food and labor inflation, but McDonald's doesn't necessarily need to recreate pricing from 20 years ago; it's not the same consumers anyway, and it just needs to restore the perception that customers get good value for their money

That perception has clearly deteriorated: the percentage of U.S. consumers who regard McDonald's as a good value reportedly fell from roughly 55% in 2020 to about 40% in 2024, according to a recent UBS study. There are plenty of stories about ludicrously overpriced "value meals" - one of the stories identified a McDonald's on I-95 in Connecticut just north of NYC, where my brother lives as the poster child for fast food inflation. Comparable sales rose only 0.8% in the second quarter, according to the company, while spending by households earning under $40,000 declined 2.4% according to transaction firm Numerator.

While McDonald's may be struggling to convince customers that its menu still represents value, its shares increasingly do. The stock is essentially unchanged in five years. McDonald's closed near $248.50, versus roughly $242.50 five years ago. Yet the business underneath each share has improved. The share count has declined about 5.25%, while projected 2026 revenue exceeds $28.2 billion, up from $23.2 billion in 2021. Estimated net income has risen to roughly $9.15 billion from $7.5 billion, and free cash flow is expected to approach $7.65 billion.

The result is a company with higher sales, earnings, and cash flow, and because there are fewer shares, each share gets a bigger piece. A quarter pounder may weigh the same, but each share's share (that's a mouthful) of the sale is actually a little bigger. In this case, shrinkflation works for the investor. McDonald's is trading roughly 19.2 times forward earnings, versus nearly 25 times five years ago. The forward multiple is the cheapest it has been in the past ten years.

McDonald's isn't completely dependent on the bottom of the so-called "K-shaped" economy. Higher-income consumers eat there too (President Trump reportedly likes it). Consumers not visiting Mastro's or Ruth's Chris are not necessarily eating at home; many are moving down the restaurant ladder, where McDonald's scale, convenience, and digital ecosystem provide advantages, but only if they think they're getting a square meal at a square deal.

Three-month implied volatility near 23.5% is cheap compared with most stocks, but McDonald's has generally been a low-volatility stock. The ten-year average implied volatility is closer to 19%. So while simply buying calls outright may not appear expensive at first blush, a spread probably makes more sense given how the stock has historically behaved.

With MCD near $248.50, consider selling a three-month $230 or $235 put, using the proceeds to purchase the $250–$275 call spread. Adjust strikes to establish the position near "even"  (no net debit or credit). The trade expresses the view that the stock can recover toward $275 as value initiatives gain traction, while accepting the obligation to buy shares at an effective price meaningfully below today's closing price - below the five year lows.

The trade structure presents a bit of a value menu itself. If you simply bought the 250-strike call, you'd have to pay $13.50. But by selling both the 270-strike call and the 230-strike put, you've reduced your premium outlay to just just $2.12. Of course, selling that downside put will tie up margin. 

Disclosures: Tidal owns/holds all the securities mentioned in the article.

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