Merz vows to stay on after state poll losses shake CDU authority
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he will stay on as Germany's leader and head of his Christian Democratic Union after a string of defeats in state elections, but it is unclear how much room he has left to govern just 16 months after taking office.
Within minutes of polls closing on Sunday in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, the 70-year-old sought to steady his position in the centre-right CDU with a highly unusual election-night appearance. He said he would press ahead with reforms aimed at reviving Germany's sluggish economy. “What has to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience,” Merz said. “I will demonstrate that as the CDU party leader and above all as chancellor of our country.”
The main question now is whether the CDU will continue to support him, and for how long. The party's eight state governors had publicly backed him before Sunday's two elections, but his remarks later in the day underlined how much his authority has weakened in recent weeks. It is still unclear whether support from influential regional leaders and lawmakers will hold. Merz has one advantage: there is no single obvious successor. Names mentioned include North Rhine-Westphalia governor Hendrik Wst, Bavaria governor Markus Sder and Hesse governor Boris Rhein. For now, none has shown interest in taking over, and Wst faces an election next spring in his own state, Germany's most populous.
Even if Merz survives politically, the latest state election results have made governing harder. He has already agreed the outline of proposed reforms with his junior coalition partners, the centre-left Social Democrats. But politicians on both sides of the coalition have questioned details during the election campaigns, especially parts of a planned pension system overhaul. It is unclear whether he can get the measures through parliament in the form he wanted. The coalition has a majority of just 12 seats in the 630-member Bundestag, the lower house of parliament. It will need a level of discipline it has not always shown to pass the reform plans, especially if lawmakers become more uneasy. That narrow majority also makes any move to replace Merz more difficult, because any successor would also need to be elected in the Bundestag.
Merz could, in theory, hand over control of the CDU to someone else and focus on governing. There is precedent for that. Angela Merkel gave up the party leadership after a poor state election result in 2018 but stayed on as chancellor until 2021. Her Social Democratic predecessor, Gerhard Schrder, did the same in 2004 after his popularity fell during efforts to reform Germany's welfare system. But there is no obvious candidate in Merz's case either, and he has made clear that he does not want to give up the party leadership.
Sunday's results have added to Merz's problems and sharpened scrutiny of whether he can deliver reforms while holding both his coalition and his party together. He himself acknowledged that change would be difficult, saying that “not everything will win quick applause”. He also has to watch the threat from the far-right Alternative for Germany party. Even if he stays in charge, there are only seven months until the next round of state elections, though none will be held in the party's eastern strongholds. Another setback could quickly reopen questions over his leadership.
