Netanyahu becomes prediction markets’ favorite to be next Israeli PM - Semafor

Benjamin Netanyahu is now oddsmakers’ favorite to stay on as Israel’s prime minister in its next government, which could take weeks or months to form, as the broader region braced for a period of prolonged uncertainty.

Neither Netanyahu’s nor his main challenger’s bloc are poised to form a majority, but Israel’s ultimate political survivor retains broad powers to wage war against Iran, even in a caretaker capacity.

A new government sans Netanyahu could “create some diplomatic space” for Gulf engagement, Chatham House’s Middle East director told Semafor before Tuesday’s vote.

“A Netanyahu defeat would be welcomed by most Gulf capitals,” he added, while his victory would mean Saudi normalization remains out of reach.