New poll delivers a warning for Republicans in Texas governor's race - USA Today

After months of polls showing Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa trailing Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in the governor's race, a new poll is saying the opposite as Election Day nears.

A new ReconMR/Texas Pulse poll, released Sept. 17, shows Hinojosa polling 4 points ahead of Abbott, 49%-45% — still within the poll's margin of error.

“Hinojosa has opened a small four-point lead over Abbott. He had a six-point lead in June, and led by a point in July,” ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said. “The movement over the last three months islargely seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Hinojosa by 38 points, 65-27%, up from 13points, 49-36%, in July.”

Here's a deeper dive into the polling numbers and how they compare with other recent polls from August and September.

The latest Texas Pulse poll was conducted Sept. 8 to 11 among 614 likely Texas voters and has an overall margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

It found that Hinojosa's favorability rating is 48%-27% — up from 43%-25% in July — while Abbott has a negative favorability rating of 45%-53% — 46%-50% in July — mirroring his negative 45-53% job approval rating.

“Interestingly, while voters narrowly favor Hinojosa for election, they don’t think she’ll win the election. When asked who they think will win the election for governor, 62% say Abbott. Nearly a third of voters who say they’ll vote for Hinojosa think Abbott will ultimately win the election,” Hendren said.

Voters also say Hinojosa would do a better job than Abbott at making prices more affordable (51%- 44%) and managing Texas' water supply (49%- 43%).

On the other hand, Abbott leads Hinojosa in securing America's border with Mexico (53%-39%) and in keeping Texans safe (49%-44%).

On managing data center construction, voters are more divided, with 45% favoring Hinojosa and 42% favoring Abbott.

"More voters feel that Abbott is qualified to be Governor, while at the same time viewing Hinojosa as more authentic and honest than Abbott, with both on similar footing on being in touch with Texas Values," Hendren said.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.