New poll shows Democrats with big lead over GOP on generic ballot - USA Today
Democrats are holding a commanding 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to a new Emerson College poll, another key indicator of where November's midterm elections might be headed.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted earlier this week and released on Sept. 24 found Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on a generic congressional ballot. The poll's margin of error is 3 percentage points.
The nationwide survey comes about 40 days from the midterms and also as President Donald Trump's approval rating is achieving record lows in several polls. The low ratings are due in part to the nation's struggling economy, high gas prices, and the ongoing war in Iran as Democrats look to take control of the GOP-led Congress.
“While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. "Independent and Hispanic voters, who broke for President Trump in 2024, support the Democratic candidate by significant margins, 60% to 31% and 64% to 31%, respectively."
The Emerson poll also reflected an unfavorable picture for Trump with a 39% approval rating compared with a nearly 58% disapproval rating. The survey said 56% of likely voters think the president has done worse than expected in his second term, while just 26% said Trump has done better than expected, and almost 18% said Trump has done about what they expected.
Those polled also said Trump’s economic policies are making the economy worse, increasing 14% since April 2025, from 49% to 63%, while those who say his policies have made the economy better stayed relatively the same, from 29% to 28%.
Also, 41% of voters polled say they are most concerned about the economy; that's up four points from a similar poll conducted in August. Threats to democracy follow at 17%, then immigration at 13%, and healthcare at 12%
“Voters who say the economy is the top issue break for the Democratic candidate, 55% to 41%, notable considering those who said the economy is their top issue broke consistently for Republicans in 2024," Kimball said, citing the contrast from two years ago when Trump was on the verge of winning his second presidency, and the GOP had control of Congress.
