New Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio tied at 42% in runoff - Valor International

A Quaest poll released Monday morning (28) shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) tied at 42% in voting-intention simulations for a second-round runoff. In the first round, Lula leads with 39%, compared with 34% for Flávio.

In Quaest’s previous poll, released a week ago, Flávio and Lula were statistically tied in both first- and second-round simulations. In the second round, Flávio was numerically ahead, with 42%, while Lula had 41%. In the first round, Lula had 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33%. The figures represented a statistical tie, at the limit of the poll’s margin of error, which is two percentage points up or down.

The poll released Monday is the institute’s last survey before the Rede Globo debate featuring candidates for the presidency, scheduled for next Thursday (1). It is also Quaest’s first poll since the ban on betting apps, announced by Lula last Friday (25).

Also in the first-round simulations, writer Augusto Cury (Avante Party) registers 4%, the same percentage as Ronaldo Caiado (Social Democratic Party, PSD). Undecided voters account for 5%, while 10% say they will cast a blank or spoiled ballot or will not vote. Candidate Renan Santos (Mission Party) has 3%, while Romeu Zema (Novo Party) has 1%. Other candidates registered no support.

Cury fell two percentage points compared with the previous poll, when he had 6%. The other candidates presenting themselves as third-way alternatives remained at the same levels. Over one month, according to Quaest, this second tier saw voting intentions fall from 16% to 12%.

Quaest’s data show that Lula gained ground among Catholic and evangelical voters. His support among Catholics in the first-round simulations rose from 43% to 48%. Flávio also gained ground, rising from 27% to 29%. The margin of error in this subgroup is three percentage points.

Among evangelical voters, Lula rose from 23% to 27%. Flávio, in turn, fell from 49% to 46%. The margin of error in this case is four percentage points.

The poll released Monday was commissioned by Grupo Globo and surveyed 2,004 voters between September 24 and 27. The margin of error is two percentage points, up or down, and the confidence level is 95%. The poll is registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-06520/2026.

This article was translated from Valor Econômico using an artificial intelligence tool under the supervision of the Valor International editorial team to ensure accuracy, clarity, and adherence to our editorial standards. Read our Editorial Principles.