Next pandemic could kill millions fewer if vaccines are shared more fairly, report finds - IOL

Nearly 2.7 million additional lives could be saved during a future pandemic if vaccines were distributed according to population rather than countries’ ability to pay.

Nearly 2.7 million additional lives could be saved during a future pandemic if vaccines were distributed according to population rather than countries’ ability to pay.

This is according to the latest NUS–Lancet PRIME Commission's report, Transforming Pandemic Readiness for Equity, which took a look at how inequalities could affect the response to a hypothetical future influenza A pandemic.

This is what they found and how they did it.

The commission modelled a pandemic scenario in which 58.5 million people would die without the rapid development of an effective vaccine. If vaccines could be developed quickly, the projected death toll would fall to 23.9 million.

However, the modelling found that the number of deaths could be reduced further if vaccine allocation was based on population size rather than purchasing power.

Under that scenario, an additional 2.7 million deaths could be prevented, with the largest reductions occurring in middle-income countries.

The findings highlight one of the major lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic: access to vaccines and other medical countermeasures can be heavily influenced by a country's ability to secure supplies.

This takes us to a country's wealth and the link to vaccine access. 

The commission's modelling illustrated the trade-offs involved in distributing a limited vaccine supply more equally.

Under the population-based allocation scenario, deaths in high-income countries increased from a modelled 2.4 million to 3.9 million, while deaths globally fell.

It is worth noting that the figures are estimates from a hypothetical pandemic model and are not a prediction of the death toll from a particular future outbreak.

The commission also examined the effect of vaccine confidence.

Its modelling found that interventions capable of increasing confidence in vaccines could prevent a further 1.9 million deaths in the hypothetical pandemic.

This points to another challenge for future pandemic responses: developing vaccines is only part of the process. People also need to trust and be able to access them.

The report argues that pandemic preparedness should take account of the social and economic conditions that influence people's ability to protect themselves during a health emergency.

The commission examined evidence from 20 countries and considered issues including access to healthcare, social protection, public trust and the ability of communities to respond to health threats.

Its work comes as the United Nations continues to focus on strengthening international preparedness for future pandemics.

In a report of its own, the UN has highlighted the need for countries to learn from Covid-19 and strengthen cooperation before another major health emergency occurs.

The commission similarly argues that pandemic readiness cannot rely only on surveillance systems, laboratories, vaccines and emergency plans.

It calls for equity to be incorporated into pandemic planning so that countries and communities that have historically had less access to health resources are not left waiting for essential medical supplies during the next crisis.

The report presents vaccine distribution as part of a much wider question about how the world prepares for future outbreaks.

Its modelling suggests that rapid vaccine development can dramatically reduce deaths, but that the benefits depend partly on how those vaccines are distributed.

The commission's findings indicate that changing the basis on which vaccines are allocated could save millions more lives globally, while improving confidence in vaccination could prevent millions of additional deaths.

The figures are based on modelling rather than an observed pandemic, meaning the actual impact of any future outbreak would depend on factors including the virus involved, its transmissibility and severity, how quickly vaccines could be developed and how effectively countries could deliver them.