OCTA Research rejects bias claims over Leni-Sara surveys, cites Duterte's lead

MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research defended the methodology and findings of its hypothetical 2028 election surveys on Friday, November 13, amid criticism that they were rigged to favor Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo.

The polling firm said its head-to-head and tandem matchups measure different voter preferences from surveys that present respondents with longer lists of potential candidates.

"These questions measure different things and produce different numbers. Trends can be read reliably only within a single survey series," OCTA said in a statement.

It also rejected suggestions of political bias, noting that Vice President Sara Duterte had led every hypothetical head-to-head matchup OCTA conducted in 2026.

What the surveys show. OCTA said its surveys showed no statistically significant decline in Robredo's support, which moved from 35% in March to 34% in July and 33% in its September 28 to October 4 survey.

The changes fell within its national margin of error of ±3 percentage points and did not establish a downward trend, it said.

By contrast, Duterte's share fell from 46% to 40%, a change OCTA said it had previously reported.

Suggesting a parallel survey with similar findings, OCTA cited Pulse Asia figures showing Robredo's share rising from about 13% in February and March 2026 to 26% in September.

In doing so, the polling firm cautioned against directly comparing the two organizations' results because of differences in their survey designs.

"The column compares figures from different survey firms, taken at different times and with different questions," OCTA Research said. "The column's own sources do not support its conclusion."

The firm pointed out that its surveys measured hypothetical election scenarios, not actual candidacies or declared political tickets. Its reports also disclosed Robredo's statements that she would not run in 2028.

To counter allegations of political bias, OCTA pointed to its latest surveys showing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s trust and performance ratings falling to their lowest levels in the firm's series.

"A firm serving any camp would not publish these results. OCTA serves neither the administration nor Mayor Robredo. OCTA serves no camp," it said.

OCTA maintained that its Tugon ng Masa surveys were not commissioned by political groups and were released as a public service.

It also cited its election polling record, saying its final pre-election survey in 2022 closely reflected the results, while its April 2025 survey included all 12 eventual Senate winners among its probable winners.

Response to criticism. The statement followed a November 11 newspaper column alleging that OCTA's surveys were flawed and favored Robredo.

OCTA said the columnist had compared polls conducted at different times and using different methods without identifying specific errors in its sampling, fieldwork or data.

"Cherry-picking is not analysis," the firm said.

OCTA said it issued the statement partly because the column was being circulated online in what it described as an effort to discredit its work.

"We always encourage scrutiny by our media partners. But we ask that it be fair and accurate," it said.

The firm urged the public to examine published reports and technical details when assessing the validity of survey findings.

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