October inflation seen accelerating to 7.6 percent
MANILA, Philippines — Inflation likely accelerated further in October as higher transport fares, electricity rates, fuel costs and a weaker peso broadened price pressures despite some relief from food prices, according to economists polled by The STAR.
The median forecast of 12 economists stood at 7.6 percent, higher than the 7.2-percent inflation recorded in September. Estimates ranged from 7.3 to 7.8 percent.
Headline inflation, which measures the overall increase in prices commonly paid by households, remained well above the two to four percent target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for seven straight months.
Metrobank chief economist Nicholas Mapa, Chinabank chief economist Domini Velasquez, Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas and UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion gave the highest forecasts at 7.8 percent.
Economists broadly attributed the expected acceleration to higher transport, electricity and import costs. The peso’s depreciation raised the local cost of fuel, food, raw materials and other goods priced in dollars, while recent wage and fare increases risked spreading price pressures across more goods and services.
Velasquez said higher fares for buses, jeepneys, taxis and transport network vehicle services, as well as increased electricity rates in areas served by Manila Electric Co., likely added to inflation. Gasoline and kerosene prices also rose, although diesel prices declined.
However, lower prices of rice, vegetables, meat, fish, eggs and sugar likely provided some relief.
BPI lead economist Emilio Neri Jr., who projected inflation at 7.7 percent, said October likely captured broadening second-round effects as earlier price shocks spread to wages, fares and other goods and services.
October was the first full month reflecting public transport fare increases and the P60 minimum wage hike in Metro Manila, both of which took effect in late September.
“We have yet to see the peak in inflation this year,” Neri said, adding that the rate could exceed eight percent in November if current price pressures persist.
Security Bank chief economist Angelo Taningco, who gave a 7.5-percent estimate, also cited higher electricity, food, fuel and restaurant prices, along with wage and transport fare increases.
Velasquez expects core inflation to rise to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent in September, indicating that price pressures are spreading beyond volatile food and energy items.
Moody’s Analytics head of Southeast Asia economics Denise Cheok, who forecast headline inflation at 7.3 percent, said elevated oil prices and adverse weather conditions could keep inflation high through the end of the year.
Economists differed on when inflation would peak. Neri and Velasquez expect the peak in November, while PNB economist Alvin Arogo sees inflation reaching 7.6 percent in February 2027 before falling below four percent by August.
Pantheon Macroeconomics chief emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco, who projected a more modest uptick to 7.3 percent, said October could already mark the peak. However, he said inflation may not return to the BSP’s target range until April next year.
Most economists who discussed monetary policy saw room for further tightening, although they differed on the likely size of the next move.
The BSP raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.50 percent on Oct. 22, its fourth rate hike this year. Its final policy meeting for 2026 is scheduled for Dec. 17.
abtestabtest Sideways trading expected this week By Richmond Mercurio | 20 hours ago The local stock market is expected to trade sideways this shortened trading week, with upcoming third quarter corporate earnings... Business Indonesia to honor coal export deals with Philippines By Brix Lelis | 4 days ago Indonesia has assured the Philippines that it will honor long-standing coal supply contracts despite its move to centralize... Business Marcos: Don't panic over peso fall to P64 per dollar By Geraldine Santos | 5 days ago President Marcos Jr. says rising oil prices are weighing on the currency and economy. Business BDO profit rises to P63.6 billion By Keisha Ta-Asan | 1 day ago BDO Unibank Inc. posted a marginal increase in earnings from January to September, supported by strong lending growth and... Business Pork tariff hike seen to stoke inflation By Adrian Kenneth Halili | 20 hours ago The British Chamber of Commerce Philippines (BCCP) warned that raising the tariffs on imported pork could further stoke inflation,... Business Latest More in Business Airlines ask government: Waive airport fees as peso weakens Government OKs $1 million funding for LRT-1 O&M PPP advisory Robinsons Malls tops energy awards Due diligence abtest Japanese investors flag new mining auction rules By Brix Lelis | 20 hours ago A group of Japanese businesses has raised red flags over the Philippines’ new framework for awarding mining and other... Business Pinoy technopreneur makes global waves with AI chatbot 20 hours ago A Filipino technopreneur is making his mark in Silicon Valley with an artificial intelligence (AI) innovation that is attracting... Business Undas 2026 By Marianne Go | 20 hours ago As I write this column over the traditional All Saints’ Day and All Souls’ Day holiday, I wonder if the recent deterioration of the peso against the US dollar, the rising inflation and the high cost of... Business Democratizing power generation By Boo Chanco | 20 hours ago EPIRA created an oligopoly of power generators by making power generation an exclusively private sector endeavor. Business ‘Weak peso to hike costs of imported farm goods’ By Adrian Kenneth Halili | 1 day ago The weakening peso could drive up the cost of imported agricultural commodities such as rice and fertilizer, according to... Business Recommended Senate majority bloc backs budget purge 20 hours ago The Senate majority bloc is backing a planned purge of the House-approved 2027 national budget bill riddled with “corruption-prone”... BusinessSENATE Prosecution eyes turnover of VP Sara’s tax cases to BIR 20 hours ago The House prosecution panel plans to turn over tax documents of Vice President Sara Duterte and companies linked to her husband... BusinessTRENDING VP Sara visits mass grave of Ormoc flash flood victims 20 hours ago As the 35th anniversary of the Ormoc flash floods nears, Vice President Sara Duterte yesterday visited the city public... BusinessANNIVERSARY Senate budget purge includes Sandro Marcos projects, says Lacson 1 day ago Sen. Ping Lacson says he backs a Senate purge of unsupported and corruption-prone items in the proposed 2027 budget. BusinessNATIONAL BUDGETPING LACSONSANDRO MARCOS Marcos Jr. visits father's tomb, sends flowers to Aquinos 1 day ago President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited his father's grave at the Libingan ng mga Bayani on All Saints' Day and sent... BusinessALL SAINTS' DAYBONGBONG MARCOSNINOY AQUINO next Recommended Senate majority bloc backs budget purge The Senate majority bloc is backing a planned purge of the House-approved 2027 national budget bill riddled with “corruption-prone” insertions, with Sen. Panfilo Lacson giving assurance that no one would be spared. 20 hours ago SENATE Prosecution eyes turnover of VP Sara’s tax cases to BIR The House prosecution panel plans to turn over tax documents of Vice President Sara Duterte and companies linked to her husband Manases Carpio to the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), for the possible filing of tax evasion charges. 20 hours ago TRENDING VP Sara visits mass grave of Ormoc flash flood victims As the 35th anniversary of the Ormoc flash floods nears, Vice President Sara Duterte yesterday visited the city public cemetery mass grave memorial in Leyte where the victims of the 1991 tragedy were buried. 20 hours ago ANNIVERSARY Senate budget purge includes Sandro Marcos projects, says Lacson Sen. Ping Lacson says he backs a Senate purge of unsupported and corruption-prone items in the proposed 2027 budget. 1 day ago NATIONAL BUDGET PING LACSON SANDRO MARCOS Marcos Jr. visits father's tomb, sends flowers to Aquinos President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited his father's grave at the Libingan ng mga Bayani on All Saints' Day and sent flowers to the graves of Ninoy, Cory and Noynoy Aquino. 1 day ago ALL SAINTS' DAY BONGBONG MARCOS NINOY AQUINO OK Are you sure you want to log out? Yes No X Login Philstar.com is one of the most vibrant, opinionated, discerning communities of readers on cyberspace. With your meaningful insights, help shape the stories that can shape the country. Sign up now!
