Oil price today: Why Brent stays above $100 despite G7 supply boost and rising Middle East war risks

Oil prices remained around the $100 mark on Monday despite a major supply boost planned by G7 countries. Brent crude futures were up 5 cents at $102.30 a barrel at 0900 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $90.62 a barrel, down 49 cents, or 0.5%. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 1% earlier in the session.

Brent crude stays above $100 as Middle East risks keep oil supplies tight despite the G7 supply boost. (Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg) (Bloomberg)The main reason Brent is staying above $100 is continued concern about supply disruptions in the Middle East. Markets remain worried that the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran could disrupt crude supplies, shipping routes and energy infrastructure. These fears are limiting the impact of the new supply coming into the market.

The G7 has promised to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves. The G7 countries agreed to the release on Friday and also promised not to introduce energy export restrictions after pressure from US President Donald Trump, Reuters reported.

The emergency release should add more oil to global markets, but traders are still worried about how much supply could be disrupted. Middle Eastern crude exports actually rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, according to shipping data reported by Reuters.

This increase in exports happened even as ships faced attacks while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, so any prolonged disruption there could quickly tighten global supplies and push prices higher.

Oil prices had already weakened last week before Monday's volatile trading. Brent gave up most of its gains from the previous week, while WTI fell 1.6%, after the G7 announced the emergency reserve release. But the supply picture is still tight, especially for refined fuels. ICE gasoil futures, an important European benchmark for diesel and other middle-distillate products, jumped more than 4% to $1,409 a metric ton on Monday.

One reason for the jump in refined fuel prices is China's decision to suspend some product exports. Tamas Varga, an associate analyst at PVM Oil, said the rise in heating oil and gasoil prices could be linked to the suspension of Chinese product exports, which is creating a tighter supply situation for refined products in the Far East.

Middle East tensions are also keeping a risk premium in oil prices. Varga said a ceasefire in the region remains difficult to achieve and that renewed fighting involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis could lead to more attacks on energy infrastructure and ships.

Saudi Aramco is warning that the global oil market may remain stretched for a long time. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said at the Energy Intelligence conference in London on Monday that supplies of crude oil and refined fuels were likely to remain tight.

Nasser also said rebuilding global oil stockpiles could take as long as two years. This is important because countries have been using emergency reserves to deal with supply problems, meaning those stockpiles will eventually need to be rebuilt.

There is also uncertainty over how much of the new G7 release will actually be additional oil. It was unclear how much of the petroleum included in the latest G7 agreement would come from oil that remains available from an earlier emergency release deal.

That earlier deal involved 400 million barrels of emergency reserves. The release was coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in March as countries tried to protect the global market from major supply disruptions.

A large part of those earlier emergency reserves has already been used. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said last week that member countries had released about two-thirds of the 400 million barrels covered by that agreement.

Fresh attacks involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are adding to fears about energy supplies. The Houthis said they launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area of Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis said the attacks were retaliation for Saudi-led strikes in Yemen. They claimed that Saudi-led forces had carried out 50 air and missile strikes in Yemen during the previous 12 hours. Reuters said there was no confirmation of the Houthi claim from Saudi Arabia.

Fighting around another key shipping route is also continuing. Yemeni government forces attacked Houthi positions in the Dhubab district overlooking the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to two military sources cited by Reuters.

The attack came one day after Yemen's internationally recognised government began a campaign to retake territory controlled by the Houthis. Continued fighting around Bab el-Mandeb creates another potential risk for ships carrying oil and other energy products.

Future oil production is also becoming harder to predict. OPEC+ delayed a review that would have helped determine 2027 oil production quotas for its members, according to two sources close to the matter.

The Iran war has disrupted plans to increase oil production capacity across the Middle East. This has made it more difficult for producers and traders to estimate how much oil the region will be able to produce in the future. Saudi Aramco is also taking a different approach to Asian customers. The company unexpectedly cut its November crude oil prices for Asia to a six-year low, Reuters reported.

More pressure could come from disruptions to refined fuel supplies in Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters that Ukraine will continue attacking Russian oil refineries.

The combination of these factors explains why Brent remains above $100 despite the G7 supply boost. Emergency reserves can add barrels to the market, and Middle Eastern exports have increased, but traders are still pricing in the risk of war, attacks on oil infrastructure, shipping disruptions and tight refined-fuel supplies.

For now, the market is caught between two opposing forces: the G7's attempt to increase supply is pushing prices lower, while continuing Middle East tensions and risks to oil and fuel supplies are keeping prices elevated.

Durva More is a Senior Content Producer at Hindustan Times, where she covers finance, and global news. She brings experience across digital and television journalism, with a strong focus on breaking news, business reporting, and international affairs. Before joining Hindustan Times, Durva worked as an International News Writer at The Economic Times, covering a diverse range of subjects including global politics, business, sports, entertainment, and major world events. She also worked as a Business Reporter with NDTV Profit. A postgraduate diploma holder in Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism, Durva is passionate about field reporting and storytelling. She thrives on the adrenaline of chasing stories, speaking with people from different walks of life, and amplifying voices that deserve to be heard. Her reporting is driven by curiosity, accuracy, and a commitment to making complex subjects accessible to readers. When she is not chasing stories or covering breaking news, Durva enjoys reading books and painting. She loves exploring new ideas, meeting people, and learning about different perspectives. For her, both journalism and art are ways to understand the world and tell stories that matter.Read More