Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts October Weather for Each State - Newsweek

The Old Farmer’s Almanac long-range weather outlook for October provides a region-by-region breakdown of weather conditions expected across the United States.

As a long-range forecast, the Almanac focuses on broad weather trends rather than day-to-day conditions. It divides the U.S. into regions and indicates whether temperatures and precipitation are likely to run above or below historical averages.

"Overall, for October 2026, we expect much of the United States to be cooler than normal," Heidi Stonehill, executive editor at the Old Farmer's Almanac, told Newsweek. "Average or drier-than-normal conditions are anticipated throughout a good portion of the country."

According to the publication, its forecasts combine solar science, climatology and meteorology. It also says it considers climate data and large-scale signals such as El Niño to predict broader trends.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims roughly 80 percent accuracy for seasonal temperature and precipitation trends, though this is self-reported and does not imply daily accuracy.

For October 2026, the almanac predicts cooler-than-average conditions across much of the eastern U.S., while NOAA favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. NOAA also expects wetter conditions in the Southwest and parts of the southern Plains, whereas the almanac generally forecasts drier weather.

Sunny and cool weather will kick off the month between October 1 and 10, before rainy conditions arrive October 11 to 21. October 22 to 28 could see sunny and milder conditions, with rain returning to close out the month.

The outlook calls for slightly below-average temperatures and slightly above-average precipitation.

The publication forecasts a sunny and cool start to the month, followed by scattered showers October 9 to 16, as cool conditions turn warmer. Periods of rain are expected October 17 to 21. October 22 to 28 could bring sunny weather, with cool conditions becoming milder, before the month closes with showers and mild conditions.

Temperatures are expected to average one degree above normal, with slightly below-average precipitation.

Sunny, cool weather is forecast during the first 10 days of October, before rainy periods October 11 to 21. The Almanac then says October 22 to 28 will be warmer and sunny, with scattered showers and mild conditions forecast during the end of the month.

It forecasts both October temperatures and precipitation to be one degree below average.

In the Southeast, periods of rain are expected to start the month, with sunnier conditions developing later in the first half of October. Another round of rain, heavy in northern areas, is set to follow between October 15 and 20 before a sunny, milder stretch arrives through October 28. Showers may return during the month’s final days, followed by sunnier weather and warm conditions.

October’s outlook calls for slightly below-average temperatures, with rainfall expected to be above average in northern areas and below average farther south.

The Almanac predicts scattered showers and mild conditions through October 8 before a cooler, sunny stretch arrives between October 9 and 13. Showers could return October 14 to 29, with warm conditions, before the month ends on a sunnier, cooler note.

The Florida outlook calls for slightly above-average temperatures, with average precipitation north but below-average south.

The publication says October will begin sunny and cool. Scattered showers are then predicted between October 7 and 16, with temperatures turning mild before cooling. October 17 to 28 could see showers give way to sunnier weather as temperatures turn warm, with showers and mild conditions expected to return during October’s final days.

The outlook calls for near-average temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation.

In the Ohio Valley, sunny skies are forecast during the first part of the month, with cool conditions giving way to warmer weather through October 8. Isolated showers and cooler temperatures could follow between October 9 and 13, before a rainy stretch arrives from October 14 to 21. The final portion of the month is forecast to begin warm and sunny, with showers and cooler weather returning by month's end.

The publication calls for near-average temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation.

Warm weather and scattered showers are expected across the Deep South through October 11. A sunny stretch is then forecast to develop between October 12 and 19, though rainy periods could return later in that window as temperatures turn cooler. Sunshine is expected for the remainder of the month, with warm conditions through October 31.

Above-average temperatures and near-average precipitation are forecast.

October is expected to start with a split across the region, with sunny and cool weather in the east and showers with milder conditions in the west through October 6. A stretch of rain and snow is forecast from October 7 to 17, along with "quite chilly" temperatures. Sunshine and a warming trend could return between October 18 and 27 before rain and snow showers return during the final days of October, according to the Almanac.

Sunny weather is expected to start the month before rainy periods arrive and temperatures turn warmer through October 10. Midmonth could bring a mix of sunshine in the north and rain farther south, followed by a chilly stretch from October 16 to 19. Warmer, sunnier conditions are then forecast before rainy periods return to close out the month.

The outlook calls for near-average temperatures overall, with slightly warmer conditions in the north and slightly cooler conditions in the south. Precipitation is forecast to be slightly above average.

Rainy stretches are forecast across northern parts of the region through October 9, while a few thunderstorms could affect southern areas as temperatures turn warmer. Isolated thunderstorms and cooler weather are then expected October 10 to 14, followed by a chilly stretch from October 15 to 21. The month is set to end with rain giving way to sunshine, with cooler conditions in the north but warmer weather farther south.

The outlook predicts near-average temperatures overall, with below-average temperatures in the north and above-average in the south. Precipitation is expected to be above average in northern areas but slightly below average in the south.

Across the High Plains, a few showers and chilly conditions are expected through October 8. Sunny weather is then forecast to develop before rain and snow showers move in between October 9 and 18, along with cold temperatures. The remainder of the month is expected to be sunny and warm.

Rainy periods and chilly weather are set to start the month, before a sunnier and cooler pattern settles in through October 19 and another round of rain arrives October 20 to 23. The month is forecast to end with sunny and warm conditions.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says October 1 to 4 will feature some showers in the east and sunshine in the west, with warmth overall. October 5 to 10 could be sunny, with warm conditions in the east but cooler weather in the west. Sunshine is expected to give way to isolated showers over the October 11 to 15 period, before the month ends with more sunshine.

October is forecast to be slightly cooler and drier than average overall.

October is forecast to begin rainy and chilly October 1 to 3, before sunny, cool weather prevails October 4 to 7. October 18 to 23 could feature rain but mild conditions, with October 24 to 31 bringing more showers.

October temperatures are forecast to be one degree below average, while precipitation could trend below average in the north and slightly above average in the south.

The outlook calls for isolated showers followed by sunshine October 1 to 9. Sunny weather continues as warm temperatures turn cool October 10 to 19. October 20 to 22 is expected to be rainy and cool, followed by sunny, warm conditions to close out the month.

The Almanac predicts temperatures one degree below average. The forecast also points to slightly wetter-than-normal conditions in the north, while the south is expected to be a little drier than average.

For Alaska, periods of rain and snow are forecast during the opening days of October, along with cold conditions. Flurries are then expected in northern areas and rainy periods across central and southern parts of the state through October 14 as temperatures trend warmer. A warmer, sunnier stretch follows in northern and central Alaska through October 20, while a few showers linger in the south, before scattered rain and snow showers return to end the month.

Temperatures are forecast to run five degrees above average overall, while precipitation is expected to remain below normal.

Showery weather and warm conditions are expected during October 1 to 5. Showers are then forecast to continue across eastern and western parts of the islands through October 16, while central areas see more sunshine. Daily showers are expected through October 24 before a sunnier, milder pattern settles in for the final week of the month.

Temperatures are expected to average slightly below normal, with precipitation also trending below average, according to the publication.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring Pacific climate pattern that can affect weather worldwide. Its counterpart, La Niña, is the cool phase of the cycle.

Typical El Niño effects can include stormier weather across the Southern U.S., drier conditions in some northern areas and changes in hurricane activity.

"Super El Niño" is not a formal NOAA classification. It is commonly used to describe an exceptionally strong event.

"The onset of an El Niño certainly plays a role in developing our long-range weather forecasts," Old Farmer's Almanac senior editor Tim Goodwin told Newsweek previously. "When evidence pointed to an El Niño developing during the warm season and expected to continue through this winter, we had to account for that in our forecasting as it can impact weather patterns across the globe, including North America."

A 2023 NOAA review of the seven strongest El Niños since 1950 found that most brought wetter-than-normal winter conditions to parts of the West Coast and Southern U.S., particularly the Southeast. However, outcomes differed: the 2015-2016 and 1957-1958 winters were drier than expected in some locations.

California experienced heavy rain, flooding and landslides during the powerful 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 events.

NOAA cautions that strong El Niños do not guarantee similar results; some other strong episodes produced only modest precipitation surpluses or average-to-dry conditions in the state.

Update, 10/2/26, 12:02 p.m. ET: this article was updated with comment from Heidi Stonehill.