Opinion | Donald Trump’s tariffs are raising U.S. household bills by $1,000. Canada shouldn’t copy America’s playbook - Toronto Star

Trump's tariffs are hitting Americans in the wallet, writes Heather Scoffield. Add to that a skyrocketing debt load, and Canada's fiscal stability is an edge in trade war.

Trump’s tariffs are costing U.S. households up to $1,157 (Cdn.) a year, writes Heather Scoffield. Add to that a skyrocketing debt load, and Canada’s fiscal stability is an edge in this trade war.

Neil Seeman is an author, publisher, and health policy scholar at the University of Toronto, specializing in mental health and entrepreneurship. Reach him at writer@neilseeman.com

If tariffs are looked at like taxes, Donald Trump’s escapades are raising the bill by about $1,000 (Cdn.) a year per U.S. household these days.

Low-income Americans are feeling it more than high income-earners.

And that was the math before the latest escalation with Canada, according to analysis done by the non-partisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center based in Washington, D.C. That bill is definitely not going down unless tariffs do.

Over at the Tax Foundation, another Washington-based think tank, their calculations set the average tariff-related tax increase at about $840 (U.S.) per household this year, or $1,157 (Cdn.), for 2026.

But they also note that U.S. tariff policy has changed more than 50 times since Trump became president. The uncertainty is costly too.

There’s a good reason U.S. tax-policy researchers are now in the tariff modelling business. Tariffs are meant to nudge economic behaviour and raise government revenue — just like other taxes.

Despite all the noise around Trump cutting taxes through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into a law just over a year ago, for many Americans, taxes feel higher. At the same time, reports of budget cuts to health, research, education and universities abound.

And so when Canada goes about confronting the trade war that is now upon us in full force, we need to keep that in mind.

“Canada should not try to emulate the U.S.,” argues Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union in Alberta. “We are too structurally different for that.” 

Canada is redefining its competitive advantages in real time and for the long haul — reassessing supply chains, re-evaluating its customers, re-examining where the rest of the world will see our economic value-added. We are engaged in a frantic global contest for investment. St-Arnaud figures Canada needs between $1.2-trillion and $2.3-trillion over the next decade just to tread water. Much more if we actually want to redirect our economy toward the world beyond the U.S.

And like in so many other areas where we have previously defined ourselves in comparison to the U.S., it’s time to change our vantage point.

We don’t have to be just like them. Really.

In fact, we would be wise to head in the opposite direction, especially when it comes to fiscal policy. The frequent reference to Canada being overtaxed and therefore outcompeted by Americans is getting tired. They are in rough shape on the fiscal front, and we are not.

The bond market tells us this story.