Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY - T-Online

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Guidance catches up, we stay ahead; chg.

100-110m last Friday, increasing the mid-point by c. 10%. The revised range

still leaves room for a beat (eNuW). We raise FY26e EBIT to EUR 123m

(previously: EUR 116m), c. 7% above the revised mid-point. Beyond the current

Q3 performance fees make the guidance hike look conservative. Strong

investment performance at FERI lifted performance-based compensation to c. EUR

21m in Q3, up from EUR 2.8m a year earlier. The quarterly total was almost

twice the EUR 10.7m generated throughout FY25. Management's previous guidance

assumed no further performance fees in H2. Assuming an incremental EBIT

margin of c. 66% on performance fees (eNuW), Q3 fees alone imply an EBIT

contribution of c. EUR 14m, exceeding the EUR 10m increase at the guidance

mid-point. The revised guidance likely assumes no further performance fees

in Q4. With the funds appearing close to their high-water marks, further

Higher rates add earnings momentum into FY27. The ECB's September hike took

the deposit rate to 2.5%, following June's increase to 2.25%. MLP holds c. EUR

3.2bn of interest-earning banking receivables, including EUR 918m of overnight

Bundesbank deposits that immediately benefit from the higher rate. On

unchanged volumes, each 0.25pp increase in the average yield across the

entire book adds c. EUR 8m of annual gross interest income before slightly

Pension reform opens a new recurring revenue opportunity. From January 2027,

ETFs without a mandatory capital guarantee. In our view, voluntary transfers

of existing Riester savings are the key earnings driver for MLP. We expect

MLP's revenue opportunity beyond Riester's contribution-linked remuneration.

to c. EUR 6-7m of incremental EBIT p.a. by 2028 (eNuW; net), supporting higher

The advisory opportunity extends beyond retirement saving. Choosing a

with both existing and new clients. These conversations give MLP's advisers

Action: EPS estimates raised by c. 5% on average for FY26-28, reflecting

higher performance fees and interest income, plus Germany's pension reform.

underlying growth and the interest result. Stronger near-term earnings and

EUR 12), based on a higher ROE in our Residual Income model.

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