Original-Research: Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

preliminary figures and our estimates. Q4 EBITDA reached EUR 88.2m, compared

with a loss of EUR 8.2m in Q4 FY24/25 and EBITDA of EUR 60.2m in Q3, bringing FY

EBITDA to EUR 193.9m from EUR 14.2m a year earlier. Bioethanol/Biomethane

division was the largest Q4 contributor, generating EUR 55.0m of EBITDA versus

a EUR 26.3m loss a year ago. The segment benefited from strong European

ethanol spreads (eNuW: c. EUR 380/t versus c. EUR 100/t a year earlier), higher

GHG quota prices (up more than 300% yoy to c. EUR 400/t) and improving

utilisation in the US. Biodiesel EBITDA rose 58% yoy to EUR 32.8m. Higher GHG

margin despite a much weaker market spread (eNuW: c. EUR 10/t versus c. EUR 90/t

The midpoint of FY26/27 guidance is fully in line with our forecast. VERBIO

expects EBITDA of EUR 210-250m, implying reported growth of 8-29% yoy.

greater contribution from GHG quotas to drive growth (eNuW: c. EUR 60m after

adjusting for extraordinary quota volumes in FY25/26). These gains should be

comparison suggests. FY25/26 EBITDA included a EUR 19m reversal of write-downs

on GHG quotas generated in calendar 2024. Excluding this item, FY26/27

guidance implies growth of approximately 20-43%. Separately, quotas usable

with the majority expected to be realised in FY27/28. On our assumptions,

The return to a dividend highlights the strength of the cash flow recovery.

EUR 78m, allowing net financial debt to fall from EUR 164m to EUR 92m. Including

lease liabilities, net debt stood at approximately EUR 128m, or 0.7x EBITDA.

value beyond the near-term recovery. As discussed in our initiation, we

potential of renewable chemicals. We will also look for an update on the

September 2025 and remains in ramp-up. At full utilisation, we estimate that

its CO savings could have a gross value of c. EUR 30m p.a. The partners are

project remains at an early stage. Further clarity on the potential benefit

of US Section 45Z tax credits would provide another catalyst. We reiterate

BUY with a EUR 41 PT, based on average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCFY.

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