Packers vs. Buccaneers: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 4 - Packers Wire
The Green Bay Packers (1-2) will attempt to bounce back from a humbling home loss in Week 3 when Matt LaFleur's team goes back on the road to face the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) on Sunday. Both team are desperate for a win early in the 2026 season. The Packers are 1-7 over their last eight games; the Bucs are 2-10 over their last 12.
Can the Packers avoid a 1-3 start against a Bucs team that won't have Baker Mayfield under center on Sunday?
The Packers have rushed for only 146 yards in the first three games, and they are in danger of becoming just the eighth team in the Super Bowl era to rush for under 200 yards in the first four games of a season. The Bucs are stout against the run, ranking second in yards allowed per game (76.), second in yards per carry (3.1) and sixth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.17). Nose tackle Vita Vea anchors the run defense, but veteran A'Shawn Robinson has also been terrific to start the season, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the best run-defending defensive backs in football. The Packers will have a new-look offensive line but a big challenge in the run game on Sunday.
Sunday in Tampa is going to be hot and humid, with temps around 90 degrees and the humidity making it feel like 100 on the field. There could even be some rain in the mix. Can the Packers handle the conditions inside Raymond James Stadium? Matt LaFleur's team is coming off a mini-bye and should be the better rested team, which could make a difference in the heat. Possessing the ball and making sure the defense isn't on the field the whole game will be key.
The Packers gave up almost 500 yards and 35 points to Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Drake London in Week 3, but a bounce back opportunity is available against rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels, who will make his first career start on Sunday. Daniels went undrafted, but he is athletic in and out of the pocket, and he has a live arm capable of pushing the ball down the field. A strong preseason got him the No. 2 job behind Baker Mayfield. Can the Packers force the rookie into tough situations by stopping the run on early downs? Based on his college tape, Daniels WILL put the ball in harm's way, so the Packers should have takeaway chances. Jonathan Gannon's defense needs to confuse him early, keep him in the pocket and make sure he's in obvious passing situations.
The Packers rank dead last on third down, but the Bucs aren't must better at only a 32.6-percent conversion rate. This could be a game where one or two conversions on third down could be the difference between a win and a loss. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bucs and Vikings went 4-for-32 on third down and combined for 17 punts last week, and now the Bucs are starting a rookie quarterback. Tampa Bay's defense is a top 10 unit on third down, so the Packers have a big test ahead -- especially if the run game doesn't show up and Jordan Love is staring down more third-and-long situations. In addition to third down, field position created (or given away) by special teams could be a big factor. Skyy Moore is likely to get plenty of chances to return punts on Sunday.
It's unclear how the offensive line will be constructed on Sunday, but it's looking more and more likely than Laken Tomlinson will start at left guard, and Kevin Zeitler could be in the mix at right guard. The rebuilt offensive line will need to be on top of their protection calls because the Bucs are blitzing on over 40 percent of dropbacks, ranking second behind only Brian Flores and the Vikings. Tampa Bay is also 28th in pressure rate, so the blitzing hasn't been productive. Can the Packers keep the Bucs blocked up if they bring pressure and provide attacking opportunities for Jordan Love? The worst-case scenario for Sunday is the Packers still can't run the ball and are once again forced into chaos in the passing game on second-and-long and third-and-long.
Facing a winless Buccaneers team with an undrafted rookie starting at quarterback should provide an excellent opportunity for the Packers to get back in the win column, but I'm in need-to-see-it-to-believe-it mode with the whole operation. At 1-2, and coming off a 21-point home loss, the Packers don't need to win pretty. Just get out of Tampa with a win. But seeing some signs of progress would be helpful. Can the offensive line keep Jordan Love from getting hit a dozen times? Will Love look more settled behind a new-look line? Can the run game show any signs of life? Given the states of the two offenses, the first to 14 might win on Sunday. I'm picking the Packers to get the job done, but they probably won't earn any style points. In reality, only two things need to happen: win and show real improvement along the offensive line. Anything else is icing on the cake.
