Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans

NBC NewsShareAdd NBC News to GoogleOct. 4, 2026, 9:00 AM EDTBy Ben Kamisar and Bridget BowmanLatino voters helped propel Donald Trump back to the White House. Now, they are turning on him, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll — a shift that gives Democrats a major opportunity to capitalize in a 2026 election that could hinge on states and districts with sizable Latino populations.

Like the broader electorate, Latino voters are racked by major concerns about high prices and Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement. The president’s approval rating sits at 27% among Latino voters. Two-thirds say his administration’s deportation policies have gone too far and three-quarters disapprove of how he has handled the economy and the cost of living.

NBC NewsThere are clear signs his party is paying the price.

FOR SUBSCRIBERSPoll: The Latino vote is not a monolith. Here’s how it breaks down by gender, generation and more.FOR SUBSCRIBERSWhy 7 million fewer working women get paid time off than menFOR SUBSCRIBERSTaiwan reckons with the prospect of fending for itself as Trump pivots on ChinaFOR SUBSCRIBERSHow Trump’s strikes against Houthis foreshadowed struggles in Iran warFOR SUBSCRIBERSWalmart’s quest for market share expands with a new bohemian fashion brandFOR SUBSCRIBERSDating under fire: With a shrinking population, Ukraine faces a demographic crisisFOR SUBSCRIBERSHigh-profile special prosecutor takes over Cornell investigationFOR SUBSCRIBERSMore than 10,000 ICE officers to receive additional training to reduce violent encountersFOR SUBSCRIBERSKremlin critic and chess champion Garry Kasparov said FBI warned his life was in dangerFOR SUBSCRIBERSTom Cruise takes on a new mission: Selling ‘Digger’FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘I am Jane Doe’: Cornell case spurs women to share their experiences of sexual assault on campusFOR SUBSCRIBERSA sluggish Congress punts a long list of tasks until after the electionFOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Some of the medication has worn off’: Witness recalls failed Tennessee execution of Christa PikeFOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Couldn’t let all of them die’: Hero Indian pilot attacked midair speaks for first time FOR SUBSCRIBERSHow Trump’s homelessness crackdown became a sweeping retreat from disability rightsFor SubscribersFOR SUBSCRIBERSPoll: The Latino vote is not a monolith. Here’s how it breaks down by gender, generation and more.FOR SUBSCRIBERSWhy 7 million fewer working women get paid time off than menFOR SUBSCRIBERSTaiwan reckons with the prospect of fending for itself as Trump pivots on ChinaFOR SUBSCRIBERSHow Trump’s strikes against Houthis foreshadowed struggles in Iran warFOR SUBSCRIBERSWalmart’s quest for market share expands with a new bohemian fashion brandFOR SUBSCRIBERSDating under fire: With a shrinking population, Ukraine faces a demographic crisisFOR SUBSCRIBERSHigh-profile special prosecutor takes over Cornell investigationFOR SUBSCRIBERSMore than 10,000 ICE officers to receive additional training to reduce violent encountersFOR SUBSCRIBERSKremlin critic and chess champion Garry Kasparov said FBI warned his life was in dangerFOR SUBSCRIBERSTom Cruise takes on a new mission: Selling ‘Digger’FOR SUBSCRIBERS‘I am Jane Doe’: Cornell case spurs women to share their experiences of sexual assault on campusFOR SUBSCRIBERSA sluggish Congress punts a long list of tasks until after the electionFOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Some of the medication has worn off’: Witness recalls failed Tennessee execution of Christa PikeFOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Couldn’t let all of them die’: Hero Indian pilot attacked midair speaks for first time FOR SUBSCRIBERSHow Trump’s homelessness crackdown became a sweeping retreat from disability rightsA greater share of Latino voters hold negative views of the Republican Party than at any time since 2016, and Democrats have leads on issues like dealing with the economy, immigration, the cost of living, corruption and healthcare. Two years ago, Latino voters gave Trump a 4-point edge over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on handling the economy. Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question.

Against that backdrop, Democrats have a 24-point lead on whom Latino voters want to see in control of Congress, 59%-35%.

That’s double the lead they had among Latino voters at this point in 2024, though not quite at the heights the party enjoyed at this time in 2018, according to NBC News polling from just before that election.

Nearly a fifth of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 say they do not prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, with 14% saying they support Democrats and 8% unsure in their preference.

The shifts come after the Republican Party made Trump’s 2024 gains among Latino voters central to its plans to keep the House majority. In Florida and Texas, the party drew new, heavily Latino districts that looked deep red by the 2024 results — but many are shaping up to be competitive in the midterms as Latino voters’ preferences have changed. Statewide races in Texas, Nevada and more will also be shaped by the evolving Latino vote, though it will not move as one bloc everywhere in the country.

The poll results, collected Sept. 21-28, “indicate a striking reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his firm, Public Opinion Strategies. Latino voters comprised around a tenth of the total vote in recent midterm elections.

Roberts referred to Latino voters as “the swingiest of swing groups,” calling the reversal since 2024 “stunning.”

“What we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier,” he said, adding: “Trump is a central figure. He’s had real consequences on our politics, and without his presence, I think none of these changes would be evident in the data among Latinos.”

But the results among Latino voters are not all good news for Democrats, who have not seen their party’s image improve in two years. And while Democrats have a midterm lead, Republicans are pulling more Latino support than in any NBC News poll before the 2024 election cycle, too, dating back to 2012.

“Despite a more favorable environment for Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats,” Arroyo-Cardona said.

Latino voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the president’s handling of the cost of living (78%), the economy (74%), foreign policy (68%) and immigration (69%). Trump’s best issue of the five tested is border security — where 39% approve and 58% disapprove of his handling.

His marks on foreign policy, the economy and cost of living are significantly lower than where then-President Joe Biden sat with Latino voters in September 2022, when Democrats had a better-than-expected midterm result despite losing control of the House. Then, 60% disapproved of Biden’s handling of the cost of living and 54% disapproved of his handling of the economy.

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Latino voters say the president’s policies have hurt economic conditions, compared with 23% who say his policies have helped and 11% who say they haven’t made much of a difference.

Among Latino independents, just 10% believe his policies have helped the economy, while 72% believe his policies have hurt it.

Meanwhile, inflation and the cost of living ranked as the most important issue to 33% of Latino voters. That made it the top issue in the survey — and a majority (52%) ranked it as the most or second-most important issue.

Latino voters who say the cost of living is the most important issue also prefer a Democratic Congress by 22 points. That’s a shift from the 2024 poll, when Republicans had a 4-point edge among these voters.

A sizable majority of Latinos (63%) say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, while 25% say it is staying even and 11% say it is going up faster than the cost of living, similar to findings in 2024.

Luisa Santiago, a 59-year-old Florida retiree who participated in the survey, told NBC News in a subsequent interview that she voted for Trump in 2024 after a lifetime of voting for Democrats and convinced many of her friends to do the same. She was frustrated with the Democrats on the economy and on transgender issues.

“It was a big deal when we voted for Republicans, and then we feel like it was a complete mistake,” she said, calling Trump a “disappointment.”

“I’m more embarrassed than my friends because I was the one who convinced them to vote for him,” she added.

Santiago lambasted the president’s deportation policies as “brutal” and “cold,” while also saying the difficult economic climate is weighing heavily on her and her family.

While immigration didn’t rank as highly on the priority list, Latino voters expressed similar frustration with Trump’s hard-edged deportation policies.

Two-thirds say Trump’s immigration enforcement measures have gone too far, 22% say he’s struck the right approach, and 9% say he hasn’t gone far enough.

While 83% support deporting all undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes, just 37% support deporting every undocumented immigrant in the U.S.

Roberts, the Republican pollster, pointed to the difference between support for deporting serious criminals and deporting everyone in America illegally as he imagined “what might have been” for Republicans.

“There is support for a certain level of immigration enforcement, but the Latino electorate believes it’s gone way too far,” he added.

In the poll, 31% of Latino voters say they or someone close to them started carrying identification over concerns about ICE enforcement, while 27% say they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE in the last two years.

Eighteen percent say they or someone close to them has considered leaving the U.S. over the last two years over concerns about ICE enforcement, and 17% say they or someone close to them has considered not voting in person this year because of concerns about ICE.

Maria, a Florida voter in her 20s who responded to the poll, told NBC News in a follow-up interview that Trump has “fallen short” in the two years since she voted for him. She declined to share her last name while discussing politics.

She highlighted frustration on the economy and on deportations, arguing that while Trump promised to deport the worst of the worst, “I’ve had many friends, family members deported.”

“They were supposed to be here. They had paperwork, and it didn’t matter. And now they can never come back. One of my friend’s grandpas didn’t even get deported to his home country. He got deported to Mexico instead of Cuba,” she later added.

The numbers for Trump and Republicans could spell trouble in November in states and districts with sizable Latino populations.

“In a lot of the heavily Hispanic and Latino districts across the country that Trump and Republicans did well, and better than ever in, in 2024, you’re going to see that reversal,” said Roberts, the Republican pollster, noting Trump’s tough numbers on immigration and the cost of living.

“This entire poll is full of very clear directional signals that Latinos have turned from 2024 and are ready to make a different choice with regard to who’s in control of Congress,” Roberts said.

Democrats’ 24-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is twice as large as their margin in the 2024 version of the poll. But it’s not nearly as wide as the 43-point lead the party enjoyed at this point in the 2018 midterms.

Latino voters also now say Democrats would better handle the cost of living and the economy by significant margins, erasing the advantages Trump and Republicans have enjoyed in past elections.

Latino voters favor Democrats to handle other issues, and they break even on which party would better handle border security. More voters also say Democrats are more likely than Republicans to share their values and address the concerns of the Hispanic community.

Amid the economic frustrations, voters are also more motivated to head to the polls in November. A sizable majority (72%) rank themselves a 10 out of 10 in terms of interest in November’s elections, compared with 54% at this time in 2024. Meanwhile, 62% say they are more motivated to vote this year than in midterms past.

And a majority (54%) say their midterm vote is meant to send a signal of opposition to Trump, while 21% say they want to signal their support for Trump and 23% say their vote is not about sending a signal to the president either way.

While the poll results offer plenty of short-term upside for Democrats, they also outline longer-term changes trending against the party.

While Latino voters’ negative views of the GOP have jumped since 2024, views of the Democratic Party have not improved. Now, 62% of Latino voters have negative views of the Republican Party, a 16-point increase from two years ago, while 42% have a negative view of the Democratic Party, a 4-point increase from 2024.

“I’m still wary about the Democratic Party because I don’t really know that much other than what I was fed,” said Maria, the Florida voter in her 20s, before adding that she’s still leaning toward voting for Democrats: “I feel like I have to put my faith in them now to fix things.”

She said she voted for Trump in 2024 in large part because her family instilled a fear of socialism and Democrats in her.

The poll found that socialism remains underwater with Latino voters — 13% feel positively about it and 41% view socialism negatively, with 38 feeling neutral about socialism.

Cardona-Arroyo, the Democratic pollster, noted that the party has work to do after the midterms to develop a broader message.

“What do Democrats do to move beyond this place where they’re running on opposition to the Republican Party, which I think will work in ’26,” Cardona-Arroyo said. “It’s sort of an open question of whether that will work in ’28.”

The NBC News/Telemundo poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters Sept. 21-28 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text messages. Overall, 20% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Bridget BowmanBridget Bowman is a national political reporter for NBC News.