President Lee has played the reshuffle card, but… can he stop the ‘sliding approval rating’ as it enters the 30% range - 경향신문

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President Lee Jae Myung speaks during the ‘Youth Budget Unboxing 2027’ event held at Cheong Wa Dae on the 28th. Cheong Wa Dae photo journalists

With a cabinet reshuffle that replaced the ministers of six ministries, attention is focusing on how it will affect the sliding approval for state affairs. Recent reasons cited for the decline include the real estate tax reform plan, controversy over withdrawal of indictment and a consecutive-terms constitutional amendment, and inadequate police investigations. How President Lee responds to these issues could determine whether approval rebounds.

A poll released on the 31st found that President Lee's job approval fell for seven consecutive weeks and, for the first time, entered the 30% range. In a Realmeter survey of 2,509 voters conducted from the 24th to the 28th, positive evaluations of state affairs were 38.9%, and negative evaluations were 58.7%. The positive rating fell 1.3 percentage points from the previous week, while the negative rating rose 1.8 percentage points, widening the gap to 19.8 percentage points.

Realmeter analyzed that “the downtrend in approval continues as public sentiment on real estate has worsened, distrust in the police has grown due to the Jeju missing-person case, and even internal conflicts within the ruling camp have overlapped.” The effect of the reshuffle President Lee announced the previous day was not reflected in this survey.

In a Gallup Korea survey of 1,001 voters conducted from the 25th to the 27th, positive evaluations of state affairs were 42% and negative evaluations were 50%, marking the lowest and highest figures, respectively. The gap moved beyond the margin of error for the first time, showing a dead cross.

Will the real estate tax reform plan be rolled back?

In the Gallup Korea survey, real estate policy (27%) was the most frequently cited reason for negative evaluations. Since the tax reform plan was announced, apartment prices in Seoul have not been contained. While apartment sale prices in Gangnam and Seocho districts have fallen for three consecutive weeks, gains have continued in other parts of Seoul, centered on apartments around 1.5 billion won.

Cheong Wa Dae is reviewing an easing of the real estate tax reform plan. The Democratic Party, worried about worsening public sentiment on real estate, has proposed eliminating the difference in the comprehensive real estate tax between residents and non-residents. The government is considering raising the basic deduction for non-residents under the comprehensive real estate tax from 900 million won in the original plan to 1.2 billion won.

A Democratic Party official said, “To soothe worsened public sentiment in Seoul caused by the real estate tax reform plan, parts of the plan need to be relaxed.” However, some warn that, if the principle of tax equity is shaken, it could send the wrong signal to the market, deepening the ruling camp's dilemma. Democratic Party lawmaker Jin Sung-joon said, “We must support the President’s determination to eradicate real estate speculation,” adding, “The core of the planfavoring residentsmust not be lost.”

Will President Lee declare “no withdrawal of indictment or amendment for consecutive terms”?

Debate over a special counsel bill on fabricated indictments and a constitutional amendment for consecutive terms could also become a political flashpoint. Kim Seung-won, a Democratic Party lawmaker nominated as Minister of Justice at the Ministry of Justice, said on the 28th after a party workshop Judiciary Committee breakout discussion regarding the case involving President Lee, “A special counsel must be launched to expose the facts of the fabricated indictment.” People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok said the previous day, “President Lee has picked a justice minister who will take the fall to cancel his own prosecution.”

President Lee has also not made a public statement on the controversy sparked by National Assembly Speaker Cho Jeong-sik’s remark that “a constitutional amendment to allow an incumbent president to serve consecutive terms is a matter of the people’s choice.” The clash with Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae over the selection of Supreme Court justices is also a burden for Cheong Wa Dae.

A former lawmaker from the ruling camp said, “Withdrawal of indictment and an amendment for consecutive terms are directly tied to trust in the administration,” adding, “Only if President Lee himself declares that he will not pursue withdrawal of indictment or a consecutive-terms amendment can an opportunity be created to restore trust and approval.” A Democratic Party lawmaker said, “If the Democratic Party remains in conflict with the courts for a long period, it will burden the administration,” adding, “If they proceed with impeaching the Chief Justice, there will be a tremendous backlash.”

Will measures be prepared to address police case cover-ups?

Prosecution reform, centered on abolishing prosecutors’ supplementary investigation authority, is also facing unexpected blowback. The botched investigation of the Jeju missing-person case and the Jang Yoon-gi case have heightened concerns about the police’s investigative capacity and case cover-ups. Some within the Democratic Party predict that, if these issues keep surfacing, they could negatively affect the 2028 general election. In particular, failures to properly investigate sexual violence and serious crimes are directly connected to the sentiment of women in their 20s and 30s.

The first hurdle is the stable launch of the Office of Public Prosecution and the Major Crimes Investigation Agency on October 2. The key is to prevent cases from being ping-ponged among the police, the Major Crimes Investigation Agency, and the Office of Public Prosecution. On the 25th, President Lee ordered, “Please consider reforms for the police reform bodies.”

The Realmeter survey was conducted via automated responses to mobile phones, with a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level and a response rate of 3.9%. The Gallup Korea survey was conducted va mobile phone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level and a response rate of 9.5%. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.