Putin thinks he’s winning the Ukraine war – and I think he’s right, warns ex-Nato official

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An ex-Nato official has urged Andy Burnham to “step up” the UK’s response to Russia as he warns Vladimir Putin is “winning” in Ukraine.

Since taking office, Mr Burnham has continued Sir Keir Starmer’s firm stance on Ukraine and pledged full support for the Kyiv government.

The prime minister has promised Britain is “100 per cent behind” Ukraine and travelled to Kyiv on his first foreign trip to mark the country’s independence day.

But John Lough, former Moscow-based Nato official and now head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (Nest), said he’s “not sure that our esteemed leaders have got their mind around” Russia’s position in the ongoing war, and the consequences a victory for Putin could have on Britain.

Chatham House fellow Mr Lough told The Independent: “Putin thinks he's winning, and I think he's right.”

He said despite Ukrainian success in holding the line in the Donbas and their long-range missile strikes over the summer, the Kremlin still holds the upper hand.

“I think many people in Western countries started to think that the tide was turning, particularly when the Ukrainians caused a nationwide fuel crisis in Russia,” he said.

“But this is deceptive because the the Russians have the upper hand in the air campaign, and are really making the Ukrainians pay for what they did over the summer.”

He said that although Ukrainians remain “resolute”, the “ground is being destroyed underneath their feet”.

He added: “I'm not sure that our esteemed leaders have got their mind around this, what it actually means, and how quickly the situation in Ukraine could deteriorate and the burden that will put on us then to keep Ukraine in the fight.

“Our leaders are hoping that we'll just get through the Trump era, and then something different and hopefully better will appear, which is not totally impossible, but just hoping for these things to happen is not a very good policy.”

Russia has continued to press ahead with its missile and drone barrage of Kyiv and areas around the Ukrainian capital this week, killing four people including a child while targeting the power grid and a key internet exchange point, officials said Wednesday.

Moscow’s steep escalation of its aerial campaign since the end of August heaps pressure on Ukraine as it braces for winter, when Russia regularly bombards energy facilities to deny Ukrainians heating and running water.

Mr Lough spelled out potential consequences for Britain and Nato in the eventuality that Russia emerges victorious over Ukraine.

“I'm quite sure there are parts of the British government that understand full well what's going on. But whether they have actually digested the consequences of this and what it would mean if Ukraine were to fall over the coming months...the consequences that we would be dealing with subsequently in Europe, in terms of our security.”

He called on the UK government to “step up” it’s response to Russia’s hybrid attacks in order to show Moscow “we’re not going to take this lying down”.

“You've got to start investing more in defence, or at least identifying where your vulnerabilities are, and plugging those gaps,” he said.

“And I think equally looking at where the Russian vulnerabilities are, and how we start to step up...We don't just you know kick out a couple of diplomats. We launch a cyber attack, or we do something else to get in there that tells them that we're not going to take this lying down.”

He said though it’s “not a happy thing” for politicians to speak about the possibility of a defeat of Ukraine, “it's a question of what's going on behind the scenes to bolster Ukraine's position”.

But he warned: “I don't think we see much evidence of that at the moment. That’s the problem, and the Ukrainians clearly sense that.”

It comes as relations between the Kremlin and Downing Street continue to suffer amid Putin’s ongoing war on Ukraine and threats from Moscow.

Earlier this month the UK government summoned a senior Russian diplomat to protest against the “egregious and reckless attack” on a German airport that European countries, including the UK, blamed on Moscow.

While the Kremlin denied involvement, Germany said it was part of a pattern of “Russian hybrid operations” and Brussels said it had “all the hallmarks of state-sponsored terrorism”.

In August, Russia’s embassy to the UK said reports that Ukrainian forces had used unmanned aircraft manufactured by two UK companies “confirm that London is deliberately opting for an escalation of the Ukraine crisis”.

It accused Britain of “seeking to contain Russia and inflict maximum damage on it by proxy” and warned that the deeper its involvement becomes, “the higher the price it will pay”.

Asked what his message to Putin was after Russia accused the UK of escalating the war, Mr Burnham said: “This is the UK doing what it has long said it would do, which is to support Ukraine 100 per cent against this illegal war led by Vladimir Putin.