Race to Replace Democrat Senator in New Hampshire Shifts Toward GOP - Newsweek

The race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire has shifted toward Republicans, with The Cook Political Report moving the contest from Lean Democratic to Toss Up as former Republican Senator John Sununu and Democratic Representative Chris Pappas prepare for November's general election.

The shift comes after newer polls show a seemingly competitive race between Sununu and Pappas. A University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll conducted in late August found Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent among likely voters. A Saint Anselm College poll conducted earlier that month showed Pappas leading Sununu 48 percent to 41 percent.

The race has also attracted significant spending from national Republicans, who are on pace to hold a $20 million advantage in New Hampshire, Cook notes. "Sununu allies have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin," according to the forecaster.

Meanwhile, midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House and Senate.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won the state in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump by under 3 percent.

Newsweek reached out to Sununu and Pappas' campaigns via email on Tuesday for comment.

Recent polling on the race has somewhat narrowed compared to earlier surveys. UNH had Pappas ahead of Sununu 49 percent to 42 percent in April and 47 percent to 44 percent in June. RealClearPolitics currently lists the contest as a Toss Up as well, with its polling average showing Pappas at 45.5 percent and Sununu at 41.5 percent.

A September co/efficient survey shows the candidates now tied at 46 percent each. The poll adds that 9 percent are undecided. Pappas' favorability in the poll is 37 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 51 percent and 13 percent have no opinion. Sununu's favorability rating in the poll is 41 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating, while 12 percent had no opinion.

The poll surveyed 958 likely general election voters in the state from September 9-11, 2026, and has a margin of error of 3.15 percent.

In the write-up on the race, Cook said in part, "When it comes to the Senate race, some Democratic polling has the race within the margin of error (though others have Pappas with a more comfortable lead) but GOP polling has shown the race tied or with Sununu ahead. It is possible that most of the undecided voters will ultimately break for Democrats, but it’s hard to forecast outcomes in the famously independently-minded state until the race fully engages."

Craig Agranoff, Florida Atlantic University political professor, told Newsweek on Tuesday when asked if this is concerning for Democrats, "It’s a red flag because of the combination, not just one poll. You have a well-known Republican in John Sununu, an open Democratic seat, tightening surveys, and outside Republican money flowing in. That is how a Lean Democrat race becomes a toss up. It does not mean Democrats lose NH. It means they have to spend time and money here instead of putting all of it into flipping Republican seats."

The latest shift is particularly significant because the Granite State has not elected a Republican senator since 2010. Sununu, who previously represented New Hampshire in the Senate, won the Republican nomination earlier this month, while Pappas won the Democratic nomination. Both candidates now face a general election campaign that is expected to receive significant national attention as Democrats seek to regain control of the Senate as Republicans hope to hold on.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.