Reflections from Beijing: China's perspective on Pakistan

During my recent four-week China assignment, I have been seeking insights into the evolving perception of Pakistan by the Chinese leadership. The traditional "time-tested, all-weather friendship" remains a cornerstone, yet Chinese companies appear to have lost the impetus to invest in the country. My explorations in Shanghai and Beijing led me to an illuminating quote from Jiang Zaidong, the Chinese ambassador to Islamabad, shared on a local news network: "Xinjiang's exemplary practice of social stability, economic prosperity, and harmonious coexistence underscores the profound significance of unity. Only through unity can we achieve victory. Regardless of the diverse ethnic groups and regions a country encompasses, collective efforts and shared aspirations can catalyse development momentum and foster a better life. We firmly believe that all political parties and sectors of Pakistani society will unite to promote national development and enhance the well-being of its people." This quote, delivered by Jiang Zaidong, resonates deeply with the current political climate in Pakistan. While rooted in China's context, it carries a broader message to Pakistani ruling elites. The Chinese ambassador elucidated the extensive efforts undertaken to foster unity among all ethnic groups across China since the 18th CPC National Congress, when President Xi Jinping embarked on a national mission of embracing all ethnicities. In fact, the week commencing September 27th marks the inaugural Ethnic Unity and Progress Publicity Week, themed "Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, Forging Ahead on the Journey of Great Rejuvenation". The ambassador recalled that President Xi Jinping consciously pursued the policy of maintaining a balanced approach in addressing the diverse ethnic groups residing in China. President Xi once likened the 56 ethnic groups of China to "56 flowers in a bouquet", emphasising the importance of party officials' focus on the well-being of all. This poignant yet veiled message, I believe, was perhaps directed at Pakistani decision-makers and political elites. Without national unity, inclusivity and consensus, enduring progress is elusive. Until recently, most Chinese officials, former ambassadors and academics refrained from raising critical questions regarding the trajectory of China-Pakistan relations over the past decade. However, the current situation has shifted. The context is the lackluster progress of CPEC. Many Chinese believe that Pakistan treated CPEC as a blank cheque rather than an industrial catalyst. By prioritising short-term political gains over long-term economic strategy, Pakistan – according to former diplomats and officials – squandered an opportunity to embark on a path to industrialisation. They consistently highlight Islamabad's sovereign guarantees for Chinese Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and the nearly $1.6 billion in circular debt owed to them. Additionally, officials cite the chronic dollar shortages that have prevented Chinese companies from repatriating their profits, with approximately $2.3 billion in unpaid dues and blocked profits currently outstanding. The prospects for rapid industrialisation are dimmed due to bureaucratic hurdles, the absence of clarity regarding the governing structure, the volatile security landscape, China's withdrawal from the flagship $8 billion Main Line 1 (ML-1) railway project, and the drastic reduction in CPEC-related investments for over a year. These factors are frequently cited by business executives and some officials. Those familiar with Pakistan's internal dynamics candidly acknowledge that CPEC is facing challenges not only from non-traditional security threats (geopolitical factors) but also from internal governance bottlenecks. "Pakistan's progress in aligning its actions with the primary objectives of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is to foster industrialization and self-reliance, remains inadequate," remarked a prominent think tanker. The expert emphasised the critical need for national unity and consensus to effectively implement policies and achieve equitable development. Chinese area experts believe that Pakistan's economic growth, coupled with its industrialisation efforts and the establishment of production chains with potential value for China, can transform the nation into a formidable force. They assert that economic development driven by CPEC, coupled with Pakistan's military and diplomatic capabilities, can significantly enhance its regional standing. Fortunately, Pakistan remains a valued political ally for China. While China seeks Pakistan to assume a more active leadership role in reshaping the Asian landscape, this is closely tied to Pakistan's economic situation and internal political challenges, another South Asia expert observed. Pakistan is widely regarded as a formidable partner in addressing regional issues. Stronger and more friendly relations between Pakistan and the United States can help mitigate India's influence in Asia. However, even the most effective diplomacy and advanced defence capabilities cannot fully compensate for economic resilience. The challenge therefore lies in setting the house in order i.e. prioritising the well-being of Pakistan's citizens first rather than pursuing the quest for relevance abroad. Credibility will likely remain evasive as long as the intent on correcting the political economy is missing. This Chinese message was even more visible when President Xi landed in Washington; the aircraft that flew him to the US was marked "Air China" – no special sign like US Air Force One!