Republicans get boost in bid to flip seat Democrats held for decades - Newsweek

Republican attorney general candidate Ron Schutz has moved ahead of incumbent Keith Ellison in Minnesota's attorney general race, 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll.

Although the challenger’s two-point edge is within the poll’s margin of error, it marks the first KSTP/SurveyUSA survey this cycle to place Schutz in front, suggesting what would be a major shift in a statewide office Republicans have failed to win for roughly six decades.

Ellison, who has held the office since 2019 and is seeking a third term, now faces a tighter political environment with seven weeks remaining before the November 3 Election Day.

Newsweek reached out to the Schutz and Ellison campaigns for comment via email on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses.

Minnesota has had a Democratic attorney general since January 1971, when Republican Douglas M. Head left office and Warren Spannaus succeeded him.

Ellison won by four points in 2018 and less than one point in 2022, making the latest movement significant without establishing a clear favorite.

Seven weeks before Election Day, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll suggests Minnesota's attorney general race may be headed for its closest finish in years.

The survey interviewed 900 adults statewide, including 654 likely voters, from September 9-14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points among likely voters.

It found Republican Schutz leading Democratic incumbent Ellison by two points, with 12 percent saying they remained undecided, a remaining bloc substantially larger than the gap separating the nominees.

While the lead falls within the survey's margin of error, the broader trend is what will draw attention from political strategists.

According to SurveyUSA, Ellison led Schutz in each of the first three polls conducted over the past three months.

The candidates were tied in the previous survey.

And the latest results are the first showing Schutz with an advantage.

The demographic shifts highlighted by KSTP point to a changing coalition beneath the headline number, with age producing the clearest contrast.

Ellison still leads voters aged 18 to 34 by 15 points, but that advantage has narrowed significantly compared with the previous poll.

Schutz now performs especially strongly among voters aged 50 to 64, while the race among voters 65 and older has tightened considerably.

Among men, Schutz leads by seven points, while Ellison holds a five-point advantage among women.

Moderates could ultimately decide the outcome.

Ellison leads among moderates by 47 percent to 33 percent.

However, 21 percent of moderates remain undecided, leaving a substantial pool of persuadable voters still available to both campaigns.

Schutz is a former Army JAG Corps lawyer who worked as both a defense attorney and prosecutor before moving into private practice.

Raised on a Minnesota dairy farm, he is making his first campaign for elected office after a legal career that included leading a large litigation firm.

"What we’re focused on is this is the year we’re going to actually end that streak," Schutz told KSTP in an August interview about Republicans’ long absence from the office.

Campaign material presents Schutz as a trial lawyer who would direct more attention toward fraud, crime, law enforcement and consumer protection.

He argues that Ellison has devoted too much energy to political confrontation and not enough to protecting taxpayers, a characterization from the challenger that the incumbent rejects through his own emphasis on enforcement and recovered funds.

Questions about how Schutz would handle the federal government have also become part of the campaign.

Responding to criticism that he could act as a "rubber stamp" for President Donald Trump’s Justice Department, Schutz pointed to his call for a joint state and federal investigation following the Alex Pretti shooting.

Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse at the Minneapolis VA hospital, was shot and killed by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis on January 24, 2026.

Federal immigration agents also fatally shot Renée Nicole Good in a separate Minneapolis incident in January.

The cases became a test of federal accountability after state investigators were initially denied access to evidence, making Schutz’s response relevant to questions about whether he would act independently of the Trump administration.

"For a government to have the trust of its people, there needs to be transparency in what happened," Schutz told KSTP. He later added: "People think I would cover up for them. That’s absolutely not true."

The remarks are central to the case Schutz is trying to make.

Winning Republican voters is not enough in a statewide race; he also needs independents to see him as a lawyer prepared to exercise judgment rather than simply follow Washington.

Ellison became Minnesota’s 30th attorney general in January 2019 after 12 years in Congress and four years in the state House.

Before entering elected office, he practiced civil rights and defense law for 16 years, including five years leading the Legal Rights Center.

His campaign is built around the phrase "Afford Your Life."

"It’s my job as Attorney General and the People’s Lawyer to help Minnesotans afford their lives and live with dignity, safety, and respect," Ellison says on his campaign website.

During a September campaign visit to Moorhead, the incumbent connected that message to household expenses rather than abstract legal disputes.

"We’ve also been talking about a range of prices. Food, clothing, the price of energy and utility bills. All issues that Moorhead residents have raised," he said, KFGO reported.

Ellison is presenting his time in office as evidence that the attorney general can affect those costs.

His campaign points to work on insulin prices, medical debt, tenant protections, student borrowers, opioid companies and alleged corporate price-gouging.

"What we need is someone who’s going to continue to stand up for Minnesota. That’s me," Ellison said during the Moorhead stop.

Democrats have controlled the office for more than half a century, yet Ellison’s own victories show that history does not make the seat invulnerable.

He defeated Republican Doug Wardlow by 49 percent to 45 percent in 2018.

Four years later, Ellison beat Jim Schultz by 50.4 percent to 49.5 percent, a margin narrow enough to ensure Republicans would look seriously at the office again.

With 12 percent undecided and the two-point gap within the poll’s margin of error, the race may turn on whether Schutz can broaden his appeal beyond middle-aged and independent voters or Ellison can rebuild his winning coalition by converting support among moderates into votes.