Rich countries face Covid-related costs for 20 more years, says OECD

The health and economic impacts from Covid-19 will likely continue for another two decades, according to a report out Tuesday from the world’s wealthiest countries.

The pandemic saw rates of smoking, drinking alcohol and unhealthy eating rise, while care for people with chronic diseases was interrupted. All of which continues to add pressure to today’s economies and health systems, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its report. 

And while countries continue to feel the squeeze on their budgets from Covid, they also face a one-in-two chance of another pandemic of a similar scale over the next 25 years.

The document, which examines the economic case for pandemic preparedness and response, outlines why early intervention is necessary to avert the worst health and economic impacts.

Nearly 7 million people died from Covid from 2020 to May 2023, while the global economy contracted nearly 4% in 2020 compared to the previous year — a decline comparable to the 2008 global financial crisis, the report said.

The authors modeled outbreaks of viruses similar to Ebola, avian influenza, influenza A, coronavirus and measles to stress test health systems and economies. 

Without treatments or vaccines, 1% of the population could die from a coronavirus-like outbreak and more than 5% for an influenza A-like outbreak in the first nine months.

Meanwhile, GDP would shrink by 2.7% during a coronavirus-like outbreak, but could drop 16.2% in the case of an outbreak of a virus similar to measles.

“Transport and storage, manufacturing, and administrative and support services would consistently be among the hardest-hit sectors of the economy.”

This is why early public health measures like hand-washing, masks and distancing are vital to saving lives and economic activities — reducing the need for more drastic action down the line, the report said.