Richard Warnica: Olivia Chow is in more trouble than you think - Toronto Star

She's ahead, but last night's debate shows Bradford's overall message is more in line with the city's prevailing mood. 

Coun. Brad Bradford is flanked by incumbent Olivia Chow and former MP Chris Alexander at Monday’s mayoral debate.

Richard Warnica is a Toronto-based senior opinion writer for the Star. Reach him via email: rwarnica@thestar.ca.

By most historical measures, Olivia Chow should be coasting to re-election. She is a personally popular, first-term incumbent facing an opponent — Brad Bradford — with a long list of pretty obvious flaws. She has name recognition. She has a lead in the polls. She even has what is usually a challenger’s worst enemy: a distracted electorate. (Most Torontonians are thinking more about tariffs, TIFF and Kawhi Leonard right now than they are about municipal politics.)

Chow should walk past the finish line on Oct. 26, in other words. After all, no first-term incumbent mayor has ever lost at the ballot box in Toronto’s megacity era. (The late Rob Ford didn’t make it to election day.) So why do I feel, after watching the first real debate of the campaign Monday night, that Chow is in more that trouble than most people seem to believe?

Don’t get me wrong. I think the sitting mayor is still the odds-on favourite to win. Bradford has been consistently behind in the polls. And at the Daily Bread Food Bank on Monday night, he displayed everything that makes even some of his own supporters wonder “what is going on with that guy?” and “is he OK?”

The three leading candidates for Toronto mayor squared off against one another for the first time Monday evening.