Rob Sand and Josh Turek Latest Polls as GOP’s Chances of Losing Iowa Grow - Newsweek

A summary of recent polls surveying Iowa voters shows that U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, both Democrats, have strong chances of winning their respective elections this November.

The last time Democrats won an Iowa Senate election was 18 years ago, when incumbent Senator Tom Harkin beat his Republican opponent, Christopher Reed. In the elections since, current U.S. Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican who is not running for reelection this year, and Republican Chuck Grassley have had control of Iowa's two Senate seats. It's been even longer since a Democrat won a gubernatorial election, with the last Democrat to win the seat being Chet Culver in 2006.

Despite these trends, an average of recent polls from different organizations puts Turek at a small lead over U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, his Republican opponent. Many of the same polls show Sand leading his Republican opponent, Zach Lahn.

“The polls are incorrect, just like they were in the primary. We will win in November and retire liberal billionaire Rob Sand," a Lahn campaign spokesperson told Newsweek.

Newsweek reached out to the campaigns for Hinson, Turek, and Sand by email for comment on Friday.

The most recent poll—and the one that shows Turek's largest lead over Hinson out of the polls assessed in this report—comes from Marist. The poll surveyed 1,050 registered Iowa voters and was conducted between September 17 and 20. Voters were contacted by phone, text, or online.

For the Senate race, Turek led Hinson with 50 percent to 42 percent respectively in terms of who the polled voters supported. However, an important caveat is that voters still believed Hinson would win over Turek once the election comes.

In the same poll, Sand holds an impressive lead over Lahn at 54 percent to 42 percent. Independents, who make up a large share of Iowa's voters, are more likely to favor Sand than Lahn, the poll found. In this case, surveyed voters believe that Sand will win the election, regardless of who they support.

The poll also found that the majority of Iowans did not approve of Trump's performance, at 58 percent disapproval to 41 percent approval. Trump has endorsed both Hinson and Lahn. Meanwhile, Obama has endorsed Turek.

The Trafalgar Group, which leans conservative, conducted a poll of 1,089 likely voters in Iowa between September 16 and 18. When asking voters who they would vote for if the election was held the following day, 44 percent said Hinson while 42.1 percent said Turek. The poll has a 2.9 percent margin of error.

The poll did not question voters about the gubernatorial race.

This right-center polling group surveyed 831 likely voters in Iowa between September 14 and 16. Surveyed voters were contacted by text and landline calls. There was a 3.4 percent margin of error.

Hinson came out on top for the Senate poll, with 46 percent of likely voters saying they would vote for her if the election was held that day as opposed to 42 percent who said they would vote for Turek. Nine percent remained undecided.

For the gubernatorial race, 46 percent of voters chose Sand compared to 42 percent who chose Lahn. Twelve percent of voters were still undecided in that race.

Cygnal, which has a right-center bias, surveyed 500 likely general election voters between September 9 and 11 with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

When asked who the voters would vote for if the election was held that day, 42.9 percent said Hinson. The same percentage of voters said they would vote for Turek, making the poll a tie.

The same question was posed about the gubernatorial election. Nearly 48 percent of voters said they'd vote for Sand, with 44.4 percent saying they'd vote for Lahn.

Rasmussen Reports, which leans conservative, showed Turek with a 5 percent lead over Hinson at 45 percent to 40 percent when surveying 1,031 likely Iowan voters between September 8 and 10. There was a 3 percent margin of error.

The poll did not question voters on their gubernatorial candidate preference.

A YouGov poll conducted between September 3 and 8 surveyed the largest sampling of likely Iowan voters at 2,169. There was a 3.5 percent margin of error.

When asked who they would vote for, 44 percent of respondents said Turek over 43 percent who said Hinson.

Meanwhile, Sand held an impressive lead over Lahn when the same question was posed for the gubernatorial race, with 50 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Sand over 39 percent who said Lahn.

An Emerson poll conducted between August 31 and September 1 surveyed 750 likely voters with a 3.6 percent margin of error.

In this poll, Hinson leads Turek, 50 percent to 45 percent, a 2 percent increase in her support since August. Meanwhile, Sand led Lahn 49 percent to 46 percent in the same poll, with 6 percent of voters still undecided.

“About six percent of voters in the Iowa poll are splitting their ticket to support both Republican Ashley Hinson for Senate and Democrat Rob Sand for Governor,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the poll summary. “Independent voters break for Sand over Lahn by a 12-point margin, 51% to 39%, while Turek leads Hinson by two among this group, 46% to 44%.”

Hinson held a narrow lead over Turek with 45 percent to 41 percent, while Sand maintained a lead over Lahn with 48 percent to 44 percent in a Suffolk University poll that surveyed 500 likely Iowa voters between August 20 to 23 by way of telephone. There was a 4.4 percent margin of error in the poll.

"In Iowa, a state that has grown significantly more politically conservative in the past decade, two important races are emerging as virtual toss-ups, possibly signaling a Republican lock on higher office is waning," a press release from Suffolk University said.

This year's midterm elections could flip control of the House and Senate as Republican candidates work to overcome widespread concerns from voters tied to the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs, and the Iran war. Although Iowa has voted Republican in the Senate elections since 2008, the state has also had a history of voting for presidential candidates from both political parties, making the current political environment a competitive one. President Donald Trump won Iowa the last three election cycles, but before that, President Barack Obama won Iowa twice.

As of September 22, Sabato's Crystal Ball has the Iowa Senate race as a "toss-up" while the gubernatorial race is listed as "Leans Democratic."

On Tuesday, Hinson called for an end to the Iran war, an effort she previously supported.

The Senate hopeful called for the House of Representatives to "return to D.C. immediately to work to pause diesel exports, suspend the gas tax, fully unleash E15 and biodiesel, and work on a diesel relief program for truckers and farmers."

Farmers, who are crucial to Iowa's economy, have been hit especially hard by the current economic climate as tariffs, the war, and fuel costs deal repetitive blows. As of Friday afternoon, the average price of diesel in Iowa is $6.24 compared to $3.48 a year ago, according to AAA.

Sand is dominating in fundraising, having raised roughly $9.4 million between late May and mid-July, according to Iowa Public Radio, whereas Lahn raised $6.4 million during the same time period.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anna Skinner and Anthony Murray.