September surge or October offload? Jobs experts weigh in on this fall’s hiring trends

Job seekers and career experts alike are hoping that fall will bring an uptick in the job market, popularly known as the "September surge."

It's natural for hiring to ramp up at the beginning of autumn, says career coach Colleen Paulson: People are "back in the groove" after their vacations and coasting off back-to-school energy.

"No matter what the market is, I think we'll always see that pick-up," she says.

The job market has been looking more positive in recent months: After a slow summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August, marking this year's highest increase since March.

"We want to be optimistic," Paulson says. "There are so many people out there that have been looking for a long time, and they're looking for some hope."

Here's what Paulson and other experts say about this fall's job market trends, from hiring "bumps" to Fed rate-related slowdowns.

Amanda Augustine, a career coach and resume writer, says she expects to see a "bump" in hiring this fall, rather than a "surge."

But it's unlikely that momentum will last through the rest of the fall, according to Augustine, and "while it's a bit more of a positive job market, that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be an easy job market for everyone."

Many companies are only hiring new employees to solve specific business needs, Augustine says: they're looking for a candidate who possesses "the missing skill that's required in order to complete this project, meet this target, build this business solution."

"We are seeing pockets of hiring, but it's not an even distribution across the board," she says.

On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since July 2023, in an effort to combat inflation.

Due to higher borrowing costs, businesses may become "more cautious" about hiring and other expansion plans, according to Annette Garsteck, a career coach based in Cleveland, Ohio.

It could also cause employers to suspend or delay hiring for positions they currently have open, she says.

"Maybe it just delays it right into October, November, December or they say, 'We're on a hiring freeze, and we'll revisit this position again next year.'"

Midterm elections are also coming up, Augustine says, which could cause employers to "pause and not necessarily take as many risks in hiring" until they can gauge how election results will affect the overall economy.

Last October, companies announced 153,074 job cuts, the highest number of cuts for that month since 2003 and a 183% surge from September 2025.

Despite better labor market conditions this year, Paulson says that many workers are still worried about potential layoffs in the fall.

"There's a lot of fear out there," Paulson says. "People have seen it in years past, and they know what could be potentially coming."

Since employers have been cautious about hiring this year, Augustine says it's unlikely that this October will be another "bloodbath."

Still, "companies are under this pressure to continue to cut costs and deliver more profit," which could motivate some employers to target benefits like parental leave and healthcare, Paulson says.

"Even if companies aren't laying [workers] off, they're kind of making it miserable for people to stick around," she says.

Both job seekers and employed workers need to be prepared for any scenario, Paulson says.

If you're on the job market right now, Paulson recommends setting up alerts on job boards and applying to new roles within 24 hours.

"You want to be a first mover here if you can," she says.

For workers who are worried about layoffs, Paulson advises them to update their resumes and make sure that they have access to any records they might need to illustrate their skills.

"Sometimes people will lose their jobs and then they lose access to all of those files," she says, so Paulson recommends preserving copies of your notable accomplishments and performance reviews.

Given the volume of applications that hirers receive, Garsteck recommends leveraging your relationships to get an introduction to somebody in the company: "Does your friend or your ex-work bestie know somebody at that organization? Can they introduce you? And can that person be the referral?"

Since many companies are leaning toward skills-based hiring right now, Augustine advises job seekers to "take a step back and inventory their skill set and compare it to what the market is valuing at the moment."

Then, you can build your job search strategy around "advertising or promoting what you have to offer and where it fits into the greater job landscape today."

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