Seven Senate battlegrounds that could decide Trump's fate···Will a stunning upset topple the Republicans' 107-year tradition of ‘single-hearted’ loyalty - 경향신문

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Will the U.S. midterm elections to be held on the 3rd (local time) become a turning point that closes a chapter of the ‘Trump era’?

For the U.S. House of Representatives, it already feels like a foregone conclusion that it is flipping to the Democrats; the remaining question is the margin. The nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report projects that Democrats could secure up to 240 seats, becoming the largest majority since 2009.

The issue is the U.S. Senate. For Democrats to reclaim the majority, they must defend all of their current seats while flipping at least four Republican seats. Major forecasters see Democrats as slightly favored, but all seven battlegroundsMaine, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, and Alaskaare polling within the margin of error, making the outcome hard to predict.

On top of that, last-minute twists such as the namesake-candidate controversy in Alaska and Democratic infighting in Michigan have erupted. Moreover, five of the seven battlegrounds are places President Donald Trump won by double digits, so how strongly Republican voters turn out on Election Day is likely to be a crucial factor.

Among the seven Senate battlegrounds, Cook Political Report sees the Democrats' best chance in Maine. Though the state leans Democratic, moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins has won five terms on the strength of her personal appeal. This time, however, regional economies with strong ties to trade with Canada have been hit by President Trump's tariffs on Canada, and heating oil prices have surged amid the war with Iran, leaving Senator Collins struggling.

Located in the U.S. Northeast, Maine relies heavily on heating oil, with roughly half of all households using it to heat their homes. Democratic-leaning political consultant Toby McGrath told Reuters, “If it weren’t for Collins, this race would have been over three months ago.”

Texas is rated the next most likely pickup for Democrats. While the race is within the margin of error, Democratic candidate James Talarico has consistently led Republican Ken Paxton in polling averages. Considering Texas has long been called the Republican “heart,” such competitiveness would have been hard to imagine in the past.

The Republicans' biggest vulnerability is candidate quality. Despite allegations of bribery and an extramarital affair, Paxton secured the GOP nomination with President Trump's backing, but he has significantly lagged Talarico in fundraising.

Supporters wave placards bearing Democratic candidate James Talarico's name at a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, on the 1st (local time). AFP-Yonhap

The Hispanic vote, which accounts for about one-third of Texas voters, is also tilting toward Democrats. In a Univision poll released on the 27th of last month, 55% of Hispanic voters backed Talarico, compared with 37% for Paxton. Analysts attribute this to economic frustrations from high inflation and backlash against the Trump administration's hardline immigration enforcement.

For more than two decades, Democrats have hoped that growth in the Hispanic population would eventually turn Texas into a ‘blue state,’ but those hopes were repeatedly dashed. If Talarico wins this time, it would produce the first Democratic senator from the state in 38 years since 1988a symbolic collapse of a long-standing Republican stronghold. In particular, because President Trump's support helped Paxton secure the GOP nomination, political accountability could also be laid at Trump's feet.

Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa are agriculture-heavy Midwestern states that have been traditional Republican strongholds. In this midterm, however, rising fuel and fertilizer costs have squeezed farm operations, enabling Democratic candidates to wage unprecedentedly tight races.

Ohio is Vice President JD Vance's home and political base, yet it is cited as the third most likely to flip to Democrats after Maine and Texas. Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown lost his 2024 Senate race, but he has long built a solid base by representing workers and labor unions. As discontent grows over high inflation and the war with Iran, there are signs that even among blue-collar voters who supported Trump, allegiances are wavering.

Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932a span of 94 yearsno longer looks like a safe Republican seat. Farmers' frustrations have mounted over inflation and President Trump's policy of expanding beef imports, and incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is seen as having failed to keep enough distance from Trump, adding to his political burden.

U.S. President Donald Trump campaigns in Kansas on the 1st (local time). AFP-Yonhap

By contrast, Democrat Adam Hamilton, a former United Methodist megachurch pastor, is targeting Republican-leaning voters and independents with a centrist message. Former Republican governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden have joined a ‘Republicans for Hamilton’ group. Notably, the seat at issue has been held by Republicans for 107 years, dating back to 1919. A Democratic victory would break the longest-running Republican monopoly on a single Senate seat in the United States.

Among the Senate battlegrounds, Iowa is considered the one where Republicans have the best chance. Cook Political Report conveyed the bipartisan consensus that “if only one Republicanin a swing state survives, it will be Iowa.”

Democrat Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist, has appealed to the center with pledges to revive the rural economy and lower living costs. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, however, is seen as benefiting from a strategy of selectively distancing herself from President Trump. Although she voted seven times in the House against resolutions to halt the war with Iran, since late September she has publicly urged an immediate end to the war, saying, “Iowans should not be footing the bill for this war at the gas pump and the grocery checkout.” She has also drawn a line under her promise to be Trump's ‘staunchest ally,’ saying she will oppose him when necessary for Iowa.

Michigan and Alaska are states to watch for how last-minute wild cards might sway voters. Michigan is the only one of the seven battlegrounds where Democrats currently hold the seat, making it a must-hold for the party. To take the Senate majority, Democrats must defend all their seats and flip at least four Republican seats.

According to the latest polling averages, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a solid lead of about 5 percentage points over Republican Mike Rogers, but the party has been hit by internal strife. On the 1st (local time), Representative Haley Stevensa centrist who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the Democratic primaryendorsed Rogers, citing differences over U.S. military aid to Israel.

Backed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), El-Sayed has sharply criticized the war in Gaza and U.S. aid policy toward Israel. Stevens, by contrast, has been a prominent recipient of support from pro-Israel lobbying groups. There is concern that some centrist Democratic supporters who feel distant from El-Sayed, as well as some Jewish voters, could peel away.

Democrats pushed back immediately. Even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who had supported Stevens during the primary, criticized her decision. Still, with early voting already well underway, some observers say the party-level backlash could instead galvanize the base.

Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate from Michigan, campaigns in Detroit on the 1st (local time). AFP-Yonhap

In Alaska, attention is on how allegations that Democrats fielded a namesake candidate to siphon votes from incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan might affect the late momentum. The namesake candidate, Republican retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan, won 2.5% in the August primary to advance to the general election. The Trump administration argued that the two candidates' names are similar enough to confuse voters and filed a lawsuit seeking to delay certification of the results if Senator Sullivan loses. However, Judge Sharon Gleason of the U.S. District Court in Alaska dismissed the lawsuit filed by the U.S. Ministry of Justice that day, according to reports by AP and Reuters. The Ministry of Justice says it will appeal.

In a CNN interview the same day, Senator Sullivan said that even if he loses, he “will accept the result,” while urging supporters, “Everyone, go to the polls and make sure this election is not stolen.”

If Alaska becomes the last battleground that decides the Senate majority, political and legal battles over the results could drag on. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, in which voters list candidates by preference; if no one wins a majority of first-choice votes, additional tabulation will be conducted on the 18th. Final certification is slated for the 25th, meaning the fate of the Senate majority could be decided later there than in other states.