Shifting sentiments: If forced to choose a side, Southeast Asia picks China over US - narrowly, survey shows - CNA

Released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore on Tuesday (Apr 7), the survey findings place Beijing back in front after trailing Washington last year, reflecting shifting regional sentiment amid intensifying great power competition.

Southeast Asia would pick China over the US if forced to choose - but just barely, an annual survey shows, as sentiment shifts again amid great power rivalry. (File photo: Reuters/Aly Song) New: You can now listen to articles. This audio is generated by an AI tool.

Lakeisha Leo 07 Apr 2026 11:00AM (Updated: 07 Apr 2026 02:21PM) Bookmark Bookmark Share WhatsApp Telegram Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn Set CNA as your preferred source on Google Add CNA as a trusted source to help Google better understand and surface our content in search results. Read a summary of this article on FAST. Get bite-sized news via a newcards interface. Give it a try. Click here to return to FAST Tap here to return to FAST FAST SINGAPORE: A slim majority of respondents across Southeast Asia would align with China over the United States if forced to choose sides, an annual think tank survey has found - the latest swing in a region where sentiment has oscillated between the two powers in recent years.

A total of 52 per cent chose China compared to the US (48 per cent), according to the State of Southeast Asia 2026 report released on Tuesday (Apr 7), which posed a “hypothetical forced choice” between the two strategic rivals.

The latest findings place Beijing back in front after trailing Washington from 2020 to 2023 and again in 2025 (47.7 per cent), having briefly taken the lead in 2024 (50.5 per cent).

The question was first asked in the 2020 edition of the survey. 

CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less “The results underscore how finely balanced regional sentiment remains, with relatively small margins separating the two superpowers across successive editions of the survey,” the report stated.

“The relatively narrow regional margin (52–48) reflects a deeply divided strategic landscape rather than a decisive shift toward one pole,” it added.

Now in its 8th year, the annual report by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore examines regional perceptions on strategic issues and the influence of major powers.

This year’s survey was conducted between Jan 5 and Feb 20, with a total of 2,008 respondents from all 11 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), including Timor-Leste, which joined the grouping in October 2025.

Respondents included researchers, media representatives, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), government officials, private sector representatives and members of civil society.

With a combined population of around 680 million and growing economic heft, Southeast Asia is becoming increasingly crucial to both American and Chinese interests.

On the headline 52-48 result in the survey’s forced-choice question, experts suggested that it reflects the region’s nuanced positioning between China and the US.

“I'm actually surprised the numbers didn't swing more, given the tariffs and other things that the Trump administration did,” said Scot Marciel, senior advisor of strategic advisory firm BowerGroupAsia and a former US ambassador to Indonesia and Myanmar.

Speaking on Tuesday at an online panel discussion organised by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute to launch the 2026 edition of the survey, Marciel cited several reasons - Southeast Asia’s desire to avoid overdependence on the major powers, and the US’ continued importance as an economic partner.

“Last but not least, to the extent that the US takes actions that kind of push away or maybe discourage Southeast Asia from working with (Washington), that does not necessarily accrue to China,” he said.

Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, said the findings suggest that China is no longer on the “losing side” when the region is pushed into an “uncomfortable binary”.

Speaking at the same panel discussion, Wang added that a “stronger, more united and more autonomous” ASEAN is not bad news for Beijing.

“On the contrary, if China wants a stable neighbourhood, this is exactly the kind of regional order it should be very comfortable with.”

Beneath the headline result, responses to the survey’s forced-choice question varied widely across Southeast Asia, reflecting differing national perspectives.

Support for aligning with China was particularly strong in Indonesia (80.1 per cent), Malaysia (68 per cent), Singapore (66.3 per cent), Timor-Leste (58.2 per cent), Thailand (55 per cent) and Brunei (53.5 per cent).

In contrast, support for the US remained strong in the Philippines (76.8 per cent), its ally, as well as in Myanmar (61.4 per cent), Cambodia (61 per cent) and Vietnam (59.2 per cent). Laos saw an almost even split.

“Countries with deep economic interdependence with China appear more inclined toward Beijing, whereas traditional security partners of the US, particularly the Philippines, remain firmly aligned with Washington,” the report said.

“The results suggest that while respondents continue to favour neutrality in principle, structural and economic realities may shape alignment preferences if compelled to choose.”

At the same time, expectations of improvement in relations with China are gaining ground across ASEAN, the report noted.

When asked how they see their country’s relations with China evolving in the next three years, a majority of respondents (55.6 per cent) believe they will “improve or improve significantly”.

“This marks a generally optimistic outlook toward bilateral trajectories with Beijing, despite persistent strategic tensions in parts of the region,” the report stated, with confidence particularly strong in Timor-Leste, Laos, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Cambodia.

The results suggest that China continues to be seen as an “indispensable partner” whose influence is expected to “remain constructive or at least manageable”, the report added.

Yet the data also reveals “clear divergences” within ASEAN, the report said. It cited the Philippines as a “notable outlier”, with a majority (55 per cent) foreseeing relations “worsening or worsening significantly” amid ongoing frictions in the South China Sea.

Even for respondents who view relations with China as improving, key factors could still potentially erode their positive perceptions of the world’s second-largest economy, the survey found.

China’s interference in the domestic affairs of ASEAN member states emerged as the region’s top concern (30.3 per cent), followed closely by Beijing’s “strong-arm tactics” in the South China Sea and the Mekong (28 per cent).

Concerns over economic coercion through trade and tourism ranked third (22.1 per cent).

“The prominence of domestic interference suggests that anxieties are increasingly internal rather than purely geopolitical,” the report said.

Respondents in Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand and Singapore registered “particularly high concern” over influence operations, including through social media and perceived outreach to ethnic Chinese communities, it added.

“This points to heightened sensitivity around sovereignty, political autonomy and information integrity, especially in an era of digital penetration and polarised domestic politics.”