Sizing up the blue wave: From the Politics Desk

Li Rui / Xinhua News Agency via GettyShareAdd NBC News to GoogleNov. 5, 2026, 5:00 PM ESTBy The Politics DeskWelcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Scott Bland takes stock of the scope of Democrats’ gains in the House. Plus, Alexandra Marquez examines how the party’s midterm success could affect the next presidential contest.

Democrats’ performance in Tuesday’s election was obviously big — you can’t reach an estimated 259 House seats without sizable national margins.

A historical look shows just how massive the results were, too.

Democrats are on track for the second-biggest House popular vote edge in the last 50 years. This will also be the largest midterm margin for one party since 1974, when the country punished the Republican Party in the first election after Richard Nixon resigned following the Watergate scandal.

With more votes still left to count, especially in Democratic-leaning California, House Democratic candidates have captured 55.3% of the national vote, compared to 43.3% for Republicans. That’s an 12-point margin — more than Democrats in 2008 (10.5 points) or 2018 (8.6 points) and more than Republicans in their wave years of 1994 (6.8 points), 2010 (6.6 points) and 2014 (5.8 points).

Ben Kamisar, Sarah Sternhagen and Stephen Pettigrew zeroed in on the shifts in the House races that were rated as “battleground districts” by NBC News’ Decision Desk before the election.The average “battleground” district’s margin moved almost 17 percentage points toward Democrats when compared to the 2024 presidential margin there, according to a review of the election results in 21 of the 28 battlegrounds where at least 95% of the expected vote is in.

The two biggest swings came in South Texas, where a dramatic Democratic improvement among Latino voters helped power massive congressional victories.

The 2026 midterm elections are not quite over, but the 2028 presidential race may soon get underway.

And with sweeping victories for Democrats in races across the country Tuesday night, voters in states with early Democratic presidential primaries also elected a new class of kingmakers.

New Democratic governors or senators will soon take over in five of the six states that will lead the party’s presidential primary calendar in two years. Those leaders’ endorsements could be major prizes for candidates and signals for voters, especially in states that elected Democrats statewide for the first time in decades.

The prime example is South Carolina, where Annie Andrews became the first Democrat elected to the Senate there since 1998.

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA district-level look at the huge shifts across the House battlefieldFOR SUBSCRIBERSAnticipation, optimism take hold as Mississippi’s Senate race becomes a nail-biterFOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Everyone was mad’: How anger helped fuel Latino voter turnout and a historic Democratic shift in TexasFOR SUBSCRIBERSDemocrats’ midterm win threatens to disrupt Trump’s fragile truce with XiFOR SUBSCRIBERSScott Colom criticizes Democrats for writing off Mississippi amid close Senate vote countFOR SUBSCRIBERSAre we approaching a new era of Alzheimer’s prevention?FOR SUBSCRIBERSMaps: How the vote shifted from the 2024 presidential election to 2026FOR SUBSCRIBERSAnger over GOP education agenda fueled blue sweeps in Texas, advocates sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSMicroplastics are altering the color of the ocean, and the changes can be seen from spaceFOR SUBSCRIBERSDemocratic Senate set to thwart Trump’s Supreme Court and judicial appointmentsFOR SUBSCRIBERSHow an unlikely Virginia law could offer a path to justice after a Texas campus sexual assaultFOR SUBSCRIBERSNewly elected Democrats could become 2028 power brokersFOR SUBSCRIBERSEven before election, Trump’s White House was prepping for Democratic investigationsFOR SUBSCRIBERSStudents’ scrolling thousands of YouTube videos shows need for stricter rules, officials sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSInside the miscalculations that cost Trump control of CongressSlide 1 of 1In August, the Democratic National Committee voted to make South Carolina the first state on its presidential primary calendar in 2028. Historically, when the state was in the third spot on the calendar, Democratic Rep. James Clyburn’s backing was known to sway primaries. He is credited with propelling President Joe Biden’s campaign to victory in 2020.

FOR SUBSCRIBERSA district-level look at the huge shifts across the House battlefieldFOR SUBSCRIBERSAnticipation, optimism take hold as Mississippi’s Senate race becomes a nail-biterFOR SUBSCRIBERS‘Everyone was mad’: How anger helped fuel Latino voter turnout and a historic Democratic shift in TexasFOR SUBSCRIBERSDemocrats’ midterm win threatens to disrupt Trump’s fragile truce with XiFOR SUBSCRIBERSScott Colom criticizes Democrats for writing off Mississippi amid close Senate vote countFOR SUBSCRIBERSAre we approaching a new era of Alzheimer’s prevention?FOR SUBSCRIBERSMaps: How the vote shifted from the 2024 presidential election to 2026FOR SUBSCRIBERSAnger over GOP education agenda fueled blue sweeps in Texas, advocates sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSMicroplastics are altering the color of the ocean, and the changes can be seen from spaceFOR SUBSCRIBERSDemocratic Senate set to thwart Trump’s Supreme Court and judicial appointmentsFOR SUBSCRIBERSHow an unlikely Virginia law could offer a path to justice after a Texas campus sexual assaultFOR SUBSCRIBERSNewly elected Democrats could become 2028 power brokersFOR SUBSCRIBERSEven before election, Trump’s White House was prepping for Democratic investigationsFOR SUBSCRIBERSStudents’ scrolling thousands of YouTube videos shows need for stricter rules, officials sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSInside the miscalculations that cost Trump control of CongressSlide 1 of 1Now, Andrews could join Clyburn as a statewide voice for Democratic voters looking to nominate a future president.

“I mentioned it to Annie last night. I said, ‘You know, you’re going to be extremely popular with all the 2028 folks,’” Jamie Harrison, former chair of the Democratic National Committee and the South Carolina Democratic Party, told NBC News on Wednesday. “She just started laughing. But she will be.”

🗳️Related: Rep. Ro Khanna allies launch a draft campaign for the 2028 presidential race, by Jonathan Allen