SPI at 11.5% as war keeps fuel dear

Short-term inflation stayed in double digits for the week ended October 1, with the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) up 11.53% from a year earlier, as the energy shock from the US-Israel war with Iran continued to pass into household costs. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said the SPI rose 0.21% week-on-week to 370.46 points, from 369.69 a week earlier. The yearly pace eased from 11.92% in the previous reading, but remained well above single digits. The conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since early 2026, is still visible in the annual fuel bill. Diesel is 44.50% dearer than a year ago at Rs402.53 a litre and petrol is up 44.05% at Rs389.51. Liquefied petroleum gas, widely used for cooking, rose 1.17% in the week to Rs5,103 for an 11.67kg cylinder, and was 66.59% higher than last October. Electricity charges for Q1 were up 58.59% on the year. There was some relief at the pump. Diesel fell 3.43% and petrol 0.65% over the week, in line with a partial recovery in crude flows, even as supply of refined products remained tight. Food showed a split picture. Chicken jumped 7.25% in the week to Rs365.31 a kilogramme and was 13.60% higher than a year ago. Garlic rose 1.85%, gram pulse 1.30% and eggs 0.72%. Onions, up only 0.39% in the week, were 114.20% costlier than a year earlier at Rs189.42 a kilogramme. Wheat flour was up 32.65%, with a 20kg bag at Rs2,697. Mutton was 15.07% higher, beef 12.90% and fresh milk 8.10%. Offsets came from perishables and sweeteners. Tomatoes were 45.52% cheaper than last year, potatoes 39.54% and sugar 21.95%. Eggs, despite the weekly rise, remained 17.47% below last October. Of the 51 items tracked in 50 markets across 17 cities, prices of 20 rose, 10 fell and 21 were unchanged. The burden was uneven. The lowest spending group saw a 0.19% weekly rise and a 9% annual increase. The highest quintile recorded an 11.99% year-on-year hike, against 11.53% for the combined index. It is pertinent to mention that the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 10.3% year-on-year in September 2026, which was lower than the increase of 11.1% year-on-year in August.