Steve Bannon Sounds Alarm on Texas Senate Race, GOP in Midterms: 'Very Tough Fight' - Newsweek

Steve Bannon sounded the alarm about Republicans’ battle for control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the midterms this week, specifically raising concerns about the Texas Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Representative James Talarico.

The warning comes from a top Trump ally less than six weeks out from the November 3 election and follows a flurry of alarming polls for Republican candidates.

Democrats have hoped to expand the battleground this year to compete in more conservative states like Texas, as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined since his return to office amid voter frustration with the economy and cost of living.

Polling shows that Republicans have “got a struggle” ahead of them, he said.

“There's going to be a very tough fight to hold the House and the Senate. And people are saying all the House is, you know, Cook saying he got three scenarios—bad, very bad and God awful,” he said.

But he said there are still 40 days for the GOP to “get things done” and that Republicans are focusing on states that are “must-wins,” while appearing to be pulling out of states like North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper has built a steady lead over Republican Michael Whatley.

“The future is not written,” he said. “You write your own future with human agency and I understand there's long odds, but there is help on the way. The air games coming in. There are some huge advertising buys, particularly in places like Texas.”

Bannon specifically discussed the Senate race in Texas. Trump won the Lone Star State by nearly 14 points in 2024, but most polls have shown Talarico with a lead over Paxton.

Paxton has a “real fight on his hands,” Bannon said.

“People should just assume we're losing and you're going to have to win,” he said.

Some Texans may be “upset” with Trump and could stay home in the midterms, he warned. He also said that Talarico would be “one of the most radical people” to ever serve in the Senate if elected.

Paxton unseated Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary and is set to face Democrat state Representative James Talarico. Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals, is viewed as particularly vulnerable, though the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. has signaled that it could spend $10 million on the race.

Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue, and its Democratic-trending suburbs near cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston have led to narrowing margins for Republicans.

From 2000 to 2020, Republican margins shifted from 21 points to fewer than 6 points at the presidential level. The state shifted back rightward in 2024, backing Trump by 14 points, in part due to the stronger national environment for Republicans and his inroads with Latino voters.

Newsweek reached out to the Paxton campaign and Bannon for comment via email.

Several recent polls have dealt warnings to Republicans about the Texas Senate race, giving Talarico a lead despite the state’s reputation as being a conservative stronghold.

Talarico led by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent, in a new Marist University poll, which surveyed 1,139 registered voters from September 17 to 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University showed a closer race, giving Talarico only a single-point lead, 47 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,800 likely voters from September 15 to 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points.

Talarico also led by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent, in an Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 12 to 14. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, told Newsweek on Thursday that Republicans “have always been aware of the historical midterm precedent” and are “thinking outside the box on get-out-the-vote strategies.”

“We amassed a record-sized war chest, put on the first-ever midterm convention, and are exposing the Democrats' far-left agenda in every battleground race. The stakes this November couldn't be higher, and Republicans are doing whatever it takes to protect and expand our majorities,” she said.

Trump’s national approval rating has fallen to record lows in recent months amid economic concerns.

The president emphasized affordability as a cornerstone of his election bid. But Americans continue to face high prices. Soaring gas prices amid the Iran war have also contributed to American wariness over Trump’s economic policy.

A survey from American Research Poll published on Monday found his lowest approval rating yet, with only 29 percent of respondents giving him positive marks, compared to 68 percent disapproving of his job performance.

It surveyed 1,100 adults from September 16 to September 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A poll from YouGov and The Economist found 35 percent of Americans approved of Trump, while 62 percent disapproved. It surveyed 1,401 registered voters from September 18 to September 21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Trump’s approval stood at 32 percent in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, which found that 66 percent of voters disapprove of him. It surveyed 1,277 voters from September 17 to September 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Democrats have improved their standing in generic ballot polls as Election Day gets closer.

Most polls throughout the year have given Democrats a lead, but the margin in some surveys had been indicative of a blue ripple—not necessarily a larger wave. Some recent polls have given Democrats a double-digit advantage; however, another major concern for the GOP.

An Emerson College poll published on Thursday showed Democrats up 11 points over Republicans on the generic ballot. Democrats received 53 percent support, compared to Republicans’ 42 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 21 to 22, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

That’s an improvement from August, when the pollster showed them up 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent.

A survey from ActiVote showed a closer race, giving Democrats only about a 6-point lead, 53 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 11 to 21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

In a survey from Ipsos and Reuters, Democrats were up 8 points, 43 percent to 35 percent, among 979 registered voters. It was conducted from September 17 to 20, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Democrats were also favored on prediction markets, having a 92 percent chance on Kalshi and a 93 percent chance on Polymarket of flipping the House of Representatives as of Thursday.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

Although the math in the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority, is tougher for Democrats, they have become favorites to flip the chamber on prediction markets as polls show them in strong positions in more conservative-leaning states. As of Thursday, they had a 62 percent chance on Kalshi and a 63 percent chance on Polymarket of winning a Senate majority.

That is up from one month earlier, when Republicans had a 53 percent chance of victory on Kalshi, while Polymarket was tied.

Control of the Senate could come down to a handful of battleground Senate races. The Cook Political Report considers races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas toss-ups.

Here is a look at where RealClearPolitics’ polling averages in competitive states stood as of Thursday.

As Republicans like Bannon warn about their party’s standing in the midterms, polls will be closely watched over the coming weeks as candidates make their cases to voters in hopes of winning over undecided voters and building motivation among their base.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas