Steve Hilton vs. Becerra: Latest California Polls With 7 Weeks to Midterm - Newsweek

Republican hopeful Steve Hilton faces an uphill battle to win California’s gubernatorial race even after improving in recent polls, with the latest surveys showing him trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra.

The most recent poll, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) from September 4 to 10, among 1,098 likely voters, shows Becerra with 60 percent support, a 22-point lead over Hilton at 38 percent. Hilton has improved by two points compared with the previous PPIC poll.

The winner will replace current governor Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited.

In a statement shared with Newsweek after the PPIC poll, Hector Barajas, a spokesperson for the Steve Hilton for Governor campaign, dismissed the gap and pointed to Hilton's gains as evidence that the race is moving in his direction.

"Californians think the state is headed in the wrong direction, rising prices are hurting their families and they do not trust state government. They are ready for change. The first debate will be a turning point in this race," he said.

Newsweek reached out to Becerra campaign for comment on Thursday.

The PPIC survey echoes several polls showing Becerra with a double-digit lead.

A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted August 3-9 among 2,310 likely voters in partnership with the Los Angeles Times found Becerra ahead 55 percent to 37 percent, an 18-point margin.

An earlier PPIC poll conducted June 29-July 6 put Becerra's lead at 25 points, 61 percent to 36 percent. A Kreate Strategies poll conducted in mid-June found a similar 25-point gap.

The only poll that has not shown a double-digit margin was commissioned by Hilton's campaign. Conducted August 14-16, the poll found Becerra leading Hilton 49.2 percent to 41 percent among 912 registered voters, with 9.8 percent undecided. David Wolfson, a pollster and faculty member in Columbia University's Political Analytics graduate program, conducted the poll.

In a statement shared with Newsweek after the Wolfson poll, Matt Ciepielowski, campaign manager for the Steve Hilton for Governor campaign, pointed to the results as evidence that Californians are tired of “16 years of one-party rule.”

“This summer, polls had Becerra ahead by 18 to 25 points. Now that gap is just eight points. The more Californians learn about Becerra’s record and hear Steve Hilton’s plan for $3 gas, cutting electric bills in half, and a home you can afford to buy, the closer this race gets. The momentum is with us, and we’re going to fight for every vote and win.”

The gap between the independent polls and the Hilton campaign's survey is also reflected in prediction markets, which have barely moved despite the latest poll. In recent weeks, Polymarket has put Becerra's odds of winning in November at 96 percent, compared with 4 percent for Hilton.

Kalshi shows a similar spread, with Becerra at about 95.7 percent and Hilton at 4.3 percent.

Affordability and the cost of living have been the top issues on Californians’ minds in recent polling. Sixty-five percent of likely voters say gubernatorial candidates’ positions on affordability are very important to their vote, while 30 percent say they are somewhat important and 5 percent say they are not too important.

Partisans are largely in agreement. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats, 65 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents say candidates’ positions on affordability are very important to their vote.

In their House district races, most likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate, 62 percent to 36 percent. Those preferences have remained largely unchanged in previous polls: 63 percent to 35 percent in July, 64 percent to 35 percent in May and 62 percent to 36 percent in February.

A majority of California adults, 54 percent, and 52 percent of likely voters say the state is headed in the wrong direction. That view is shared by 94 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of independents, compared with 32 percent of Democrats.

Half of California adults and likely voters still approve of how Newsom is handling his job as governor. Approval varies sharply by party, with most Democrats approving, independents divided and nearly all Republicans disapproving. Residents of Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area are more likely to approve than those in other parts of the state.

Becerra and Hilton emerged from a contentious jungle primary in June and will face off in the November general election.

A former secretary of Health and Human Services during the Biden administration, Becerra previously served as California's attorney general and was also a member of Congress. He has made lowering the cost of living a central part of his campaign, with a focus on housing, healthcare and utility costs.

Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, received Trump's endorsement in April. He has described the endorsement as “a very powerful driver of turnout” heading into the midterm election.

His campaign has made lowering gas prices a central part of its platform, promising to bring the price down to $3 a gallon. His proposals include increasing domestic oil production, reducing regulations on refineries and rolling back climate policies that he says have driven up energy costs.

He has also promised to cut electricity bills, arguing that California has become too reliant on wind and solar power.

But California remains a steep climb for Republicans. The last Republican to win the governorship was Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor-turned-politician who won the 2003 recall election and was reelected in 2006. No Republican has won a statewide race in California since. Democrats have a nearly 2-to-1 registration advantage, while independents have favored Becerra by roughly 58 percent to 30 percent in Berkeley's polling.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball don’t view the race as competitive, with both classifying it as safe or solid for Democrats.

Polls will continue to be closely watched to gauge California's electorate ahead of the November midterms. Hilton has challenged Becerra to a series of debates in the coming months, but it’s not clear when they will occur.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.