Steve Hilton’s Chances As He Faces Republican Backlash Over New Ad - Newsweek

Republican California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is facing criticism from members of his own party over a provocative campaign advertisement, as he tries to close a substantial polling gap with Democrat Xavier Becerra in the final month of the race.

The ad, which has been described as sexually suggestive and provocative, shows two young women sitting on a bed with an LGBTQ+ flag visible behind them. One appears nervous about trying something new as the other reassures her and guides her hand, before it becomes clear they are talking about voting. The woman directs her companion to mark her ballot for Hilton rather than Becerra and then tells her to lick the mail-in ballot envelope.

The campaign ad has sparked bipartisan backlash from political figures across the spectrum.

Michael Gates, the Republican candidate for attorney general who has appeared with Hilton during the campaign, said in a statement he "emphatically" denounced the use of young women as a political tool.

"I want to be clear: I do not condone Steve Hilton's "Just Try It" video. My campaign was not consulted, nor alerted to its release," Gates wrote in a post on X. "I emphatically denounce the use of young women as a political tool. California families deserve better, and as AG, I will fight every day to protect our girls, young women, and parental rights. I guarantee it."

Sonja Shaw, a candidate for state superintendent of public instruction, issued an even sharper rebuke. She criticized Hilton as well as the California Republican Party and its chairwoman for promoting the advertisement, describing it as "creepy, weird, disturbing garbage" and saying it represented why some people were leaving the party.

Rep. Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, told the Los Angeles Times that the ad was “bizarre and desperate,” arguing that Hilton was “more interested in AI slop than actually talking about issues Californians care about.”

Hilton defended the ad in an interview with the Los Angeles Times, saying: “We’re just saying, you know, just try it. It’s a provocative and humorous way of making a point, right? Which often the best communication does.”

The backlash comes during a difficult stage of the campaign for Hilton, a former Fox News host and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron. Hilton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, is attempting to become California's first Republican governor in two decades.

Polls have consistently placed Becerra well ahead of Hilton in California, a Democrat stronghold.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted September 15 to 20 among 4,512 likely voters found Becerra ahead by 25 percentage points, 58 percent to 33 percent. Its margin of error was 2 percentage points.

That was wider than Berkeley's August survey, which put Becerra at 55 percent and Hilton at 37 percent among likely voters.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted over the same September 15-20 period found Becerra leading 55 percent to 33 percent among 742 likely voters, with a 4.6-point margin of error. A separate September survey put the race at 54 percent for Becerra and 36 percent for Hilton.

The Public Policy Institute of California produced a similar result. Its September 4-10 survey of 1,103 likely voters found Becerra leading Hilton 60 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error among likely voters was 3.8 percentage points.

Hilton has nevertheless continued to pitch voters on replacing Democratic control in Sacramento, campaigning heavily on affordability, taxes and the cost of living. In his recent debate with Becerra, he argued that California voters should reject the political status quo, while Becerra sought to tie his Republican opponent to Trump.

Prediction markets also give Hilton a relatively small chance of winning the November election, although those markets measure trading activity rather than voter intentions and should not be treated as opinion polls.

As of Sunday, Polymarket gave Becerra a 96 percent chance of winning, compared with 4 percent for Hilton.

Becerra's advantage has remained in double digits throughout the general-election surveys listed by RealClearPolling.

The election will be held on November 3. Hilton and Becerra faced each other in their only scheduled general-election debate on September 30, clashing over issues including taxes, immigration, and artificial intelligence.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Cristina Diciu.