Super El Nino could reshape daily life, threaten livelihoods in Southeast Asia with lingering heat - CNA
The chance of a “very strong” El Nino from next month to December is forecast to be 98 per cent now. CNA’s Insight looks at how living costs could rise and how ready the region is for the disruptions ahead.
More wildfires can be expected in Southeast Asia, as was the case during the last super El Nino from 2015 to 2016.
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Liew Zhi Xin & Lewa Pardomuan 17 Sep 2026 06:00AM (Updated: 17 Sep 2026 07:38AM) Bookmark Bookmark Share WhatsApp Telegram Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn Set CNA as your preferred source on Google Add CNA as a trusted source to help Google better understand and surface our content in search results. Read a summary of this article on FAST. Get bite-sized news via a newcards interface. Give it a try. Click here to return to FAST Tap here to return to FAST FAST BALI: It is known as Indonesia’s green gold. That is one way to describe seaweed in a country that is the world’s top tropical seaweed producer.
But as its seaweed farmers have recently seen, this green gold can turn white — because of the heat.
Wayan Suwarbawa, 54, was preparing to harvest his seaweed in July when a week of intense heat left much of his crop bleached or detached from its ropes.
In places, seaweed that should have weighed about 650g was down to 25g or 50g. The farmer on Nusa Lembongan, Bali, estimated his losses at nearly 10 million rupiah (US$570). His damaged crop could not be reused for seedlings either.
CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less “A total loss”: Wayan Suwarbawa describing his damaged seaweed. “We’d never experienced a heat phenomenon like the one we had (in July), with strong gusts from the east,” he said. “As farmers, we fear the impact of the easterly winds.”
The heat comes as El Nino develops across the Pacific, bringing drier conditions to Southeast Asia.
The climate phenomenon recurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting around nine to 12 months, when trade winds weaken and cause warm surface water and rainfall to shift towards the central and eastern Pacific.
While its effects are already being felt, with farms in Indonesia hit by drought and reservoir levels in Vietnam dropping, it may only just be getting started. What follows in the next few months could be more severe.
This year’s event may develop into a “super” El Nino, where the warming in the Pacific is both intense and unusually widespread. Some experts have even dubbed it a “Godzilla” El Nino.
Last Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center of the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was a 98 per cent chance of a “very strong” El Nino from next month to December.
It also forecast a 75 per cent chance — up from its previous forecast of 69 per cent — of the most severe El Nino since 1950 during those months.
There have been three other super El Nino events in living memory, in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. The current one is unfolding against the backdrop of a warmer global climate than before, which could worsen its impact, researchers warn.
If conditions intensify, the consequences may extend to disruptions in daily life across Southeast Asia, including less obvious risks to health and livelihoods. CNA’s Insight examines the possibilities and asks how prepared the region is.
WATCH: A ‘super’ El Nino is coming for Southeast Asia. What happens next? (45:19)
