Super El Nino Projected to Cause More Than 450,000 Heat Deaths by February

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - More than 450,000 people could die from additional heat linked to the powerful Super El Nino currently warming the planet by February 2027, according to a new estimate by climate scientists cited by The Guardian.

The projection covers the period from June 2026 through February 2027 and estimates about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide. The researchers said elevated heat mortality could continue through June or July 2027.

The projected toll is in addition to deaths already linked to rising temperatures caused by the climate crisis. The researchers also warned that El Nino could contribute to further deaths through droughts, wildfires and flooding.

The researchers estimate that tropical countries including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil will face some of the highest additional heat mortality over the next six months.

The Sahel region of Africa and Southeast Asia are also expected to be heavily affected.

The United States is among the 20 countries projected to experience the highest number of additional heat deaths, with about 3,500 deaths attributed to the extra heat.

The researchers said identifying the projected impacts at a regional level could help governments target measures to protect vulnerable populations.

These measures could include improved heat forecasts, cooling centers where people can seek shelter, additional medical staff during periods of extreme heat and stronger protections for outdoor workers.

The current El Nino has already exceeded the highest temperature previously recorded for the phenomenon, several months before its expected peak.

Scientists have described the event as exceptionally powerful, with some comparing its scale to previous extreme El Nino events.

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. However, scientists have warned that human-caused global warming can make its impacts more severe because the phenomenon is occurring on an already warmer planet.

The researchers described the current event as a “postcard from our future,” saying the temperatures it is producing resemble levels that could become more common under climate change in the coming decades.

The estimate was produced using peer-reviewed methods that examine the relationship between monthly temperatures and heat-related deaths across 24,378 regions worldwide.

The researchers combined those historical relationships with forecasts for higher temperatures caused by El Nino in the coming months.

The baseline was based on the number of heat-related deaths recorded during an average month between 1996 and 2025.

The report has not yet been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. However, co-author Michael Greenstone, a professor at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the researchers released the findings because of the urgency of the situation.

The approach could also help authorities anticipate heat-related deaths in a way similar to existing systems that forecast the effects of climate shocks on crops.

The potential impact of El Niño extends beyond heat-related deaths.

The World Food Programme warned in August that the phenomenon could push about 50 million people into acute hunger while driving up food prices.

A severe El Niño in 1877-1878 was associated with widespread drought and famine and is estimated to have caused more than 50 million deaths, with India, Brazil and China among the hardest-hit countries.

The current event is unfolding under very different circumstances, but scientists say the combination of El Niño and a warmer global climate could increase risks to food supplies, water resources and public health.

Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report at the University of California, Berkeley, said stronger emergency responses and better-targeted measures could save lives during the current event.

However, she warned that relying on emergency responses alone would not be sustainable as extreme temperatures become more common.

Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the current Super El Nino represents a major redistribution of energy within the climate system and is occurring on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate.

She warned that communities could face unprecedented heat extremes and their consequences for health, food security and water availability.

“El Nino comes and goes,” Otto said, but continued fossil fuel use means future El Nino events will occur on an increasingly hotter baseline, making their consequences more difficult for communities to manage.

Read: Super El Nino Threat Grows Across the US. Here's What to Expect