'Super unprecedented': How the Parti Québécois could win a majority with less than a third of the vote - National Post

Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon waves to supporters as he arrives at the National Assembly in Quebec City Wednesday Sept. 9, 2026. Photo by Francis Vachon/PostmediaArticle contentOn Monday, a political feat that has never been pulled off in Canada might come to pass.

The separatist Parti Québécois could very well win a majority government in Quebec with barely 30 per cent of the vote — or possibly even less.

“If they get 30 per cent of the votes, even with a minority government, that would be unprecedented. But with a majority, that would be absolutely stunning — super unprecedented,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University.

Béland doesn’t know of any instance across Canada where a party won a majority with such a low share of the vote.

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“Certainly, in Quebec it would be a first,” he said.

If the PQ forms a majority, Béland suspects “this will probably re-start or amplify the debate on electoral reform.”

Three polls taken last weekend showed the PQ with 30 per cent support and the Liberals between 22 and 26 per cent. Poll aggregator sites suggested the PQ was within grasp of forming a majority government.

The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, which was near the top of the polls at the start of the campaign, has fallen to fourth place behind the PQ, the Liberals and the Conservative Party of Quebec, which was polling at 16 to 19 per cent support, the most recent polls show. Québec Solidaire is trailing with about 11 per cent of the vote.

This is the first Quebec election with five “significant parties” in the running, said André Lecours, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa. He said the “extreme fragmentation” of the vote makes it possible for a party to claim victory with just 30 per cent support.

“I can say with great confidence that this type of result would be impossible in a situation of two or three parties,” Lecours said.