Susan Collins Takes Another Poll Lead Amid Questions Over FBI Investigation - Newsweek

Maine’s Republican Senator Susan Collins has recorded another polling win over her Democratic rival Troy Jackson, but lingering questions about her alleged involvement in a kickback scheme and a related federal probe continue to cast a shadow over her campaign.

Since Jackson entered the race as a replacement for Graham Platner—who dropped out in July following a sexual assault allegation, which he denies—the logger and former Maine Senate president has edged out the five-term senator in nearly every survey.

Last week, however, a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey gave Collins her first lead, and new polling from the data analytics firm co/efficient has offered her another edge over Jackson. Of the 1,240 likely general election voters surveyed between September 28 and 30, 48 percent said they would vote for Collins compared with 46 percent for Jackson—a 2 percent edge within the poll’s margin of error—with 6 percent undecided.

Newsweek has contacted both campaigns for comment.

Though Democrats hold a slight polling advantage, election forecasters like RacetotheWH show a close contest for control of the Senate this year. Maine’s seat has emerged as one of the most hotly contested and is therefore receiving particular attention alongside races in Ohio and Texas, among others.

The Pine Tree State historically leans Blue and voted against Donald Trump in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections, though Collins has comfortably held her Senate seat since 1996 thanks to cultivating a reputation as a moderate Republican willing to work with the opposition on local and nationwide issues.

However, her 2026 bid for re-election has been viewed as particularly tough, given contemporary voter frustration with the Trump administration and the economy—both key points of attack from the Jackson campaign.

Meanwhile, Jackson led a new poll of the Senate races from AARP published on Thursday. He was up 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent, in that poll, which surveyed 982 likely voters from September 20 to 22. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research.

Older voters are going to be an important demographic in Maine, Noël Bonam, AARP Maine state director, said during a press call on Thursday. Maine is the oldest state in the country, with an average age of 44.8, according to the state Department of Administrative and Financial Services

“We know that older voters are extremely engaged and consistently turn out at the polls at the highest rate of any age group,” he said.

“Not only will they make up nearly two-thirds of the electorate, but they’re especially likely to be ticket splitters,” Hogan added.

The poll found that Democrat Hannah Pingree is in a stronger position in the gubernatorial race, leading Republican Bobby Charles by 13 points, 52 percent to 39. Among 50+ voters, she led by 7 points, while Collins led by 9 points among that same voting group.

In the co/efficient poll published on Wednesday, 44 percent said they had a favorable view of Collins as a candidate, with 47 percent viewing her unfavorably and 9 percent holding no opinion. Jackson appears to be lagging when it comes to recognizability, however, with 36 percent viewing him favorably, 47 percent unfavorably and a larger 16 percent having no opinion on the candidate. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.77 percentage points.

The pollster—identified as conservative-leaning by the watchdog MBFC—found that 53 percent of those surveyed dislike Trump and his policies, compared to 32 percent who support both Trump and his policies, 12 percent who dislike him but are in favor of his policies, and 3 percent who are unsure.

Other recent polling has shown similarly thin margins between the two candidates—most leads falling within the pollsters' respective margins of error. Prediction market users favor Jackson as the eventual winner, though his odds on Polymarket have slid from over 70 percent to under 60 percent in the past week.

In September, the investigative outlet ProPublica published a report alleging that Collins had helped steer federal funding toward a defense contractor which had contributed to her political campaigns. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) probed the allegations at the time, though ProPublica notes that this investigation was shelved after Trump returned to office.

An FBI spokesperson told ProPublica that the investigation had concluded years prior and "ultimately found nothing implicating Senator Collins.” Collins’s office likewise told Newsweek last week that she "cooperated fully" with the FBI during the investigation, and called the allegations outlined by ProPublica "categorically false."

The issue continues to cloud Collins’s campaign, however.

Maine-based political consultant and longtime Democratic strategist Toby J. McGrath said that the report could upset the so-far even balance of the Maine contest, telling Newsweek last week that "all stories, especially negative stories that potentially break the public trust, are important in close elections." However, he said this would hinge on whether the story itself can cut "through the noise," and whether Mainers "believe anything nefarious occurred."

In a statement to Newsweek last Tuesday, Jackson said Collins was guilty of "corruption of the highest order,” and his campaign has continued to focus on the issue as evidence of supposedly shady ties between her and the Trump administration.

“You’re not supposed to be the chair of Appropriations and steer money toward people who fill your campaign coffers,” he told the Portland, Maine-based station WMTW this week.

On Tuesday, the Maine Democratic Party released a series of interviews with veterans in Bangor who said they were “galvanized” to speak out following the ProPublica report.

“Senator Collins chairs the Appropriations Committee, the committee that controls enormous federal spending,” said one. “That power comes with a responsibility to taxpayers and service members who depend on those dollars.”

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly, Emma Lee-Sang and Cristina Diciu.