Sweden election too close to call as left bloc holds razor-thin lead

Sweden's next government remained uncertain on Monday as the national election moved towards a final result, with the left-wing opposition holding a slim lead and the hard-right anti-immigration Sweden Democrats performing below expectations.

Preliminary results showed a narrow edge for the opposition and former prime minister Magdalena Andersson's attempt to return to office at the head of a left-wing coalition, although her own centre-left Social Democrats lost support. Even if the left secures a majority, Andersson faces a difficult task in turning that into a government, while conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said he would examine possible options given the close contest.

With more than 94 per cent of districts counted, the Swedish Election Authority said the four opposition parties were on course for 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, while the four parties that make up or support the outgoing government were heading for 173 seats. The result may not be settled until Wednesday, when local election boards count early votes that did not reach polling stations by Election Day, including overseas votes.

Addressing supporters, Andersson said, "we must wait for the final election result" but added that "right now we are leading." Kristersson, who has led Sweden since 2022 with a three-party centre-right coalition, said, "When we have the final result it's a good idea to look at possible combinations," adding that "there is a very clear non-socialist majority, or non-left leaning economic majority in the Swedish parliament. And I will actually take note of that and at least figure out whether there are any possibilities." He also said the outcome "could lead to a complicated process of forming a government. It may take time, but we're in no rush."

Kristersson's government has relied on outside support from the Sweden Democrats, a party with anti-immigration politics and far-right roots that had been promised Cabinet posts if the coalition returned to office. But the party's support slipped to just under 18 per cent, about three percentage points lower than in 2022, leaving it behind Kristersson's Moderates in third place. At the same time, Andersson's Social Democrats remained the biggest single party with a little over 28 per cent of the vote, though they too lost support compared with the last election. Tensions within the opposition could also complicate government formation, with the Centre Party saying it does not want to join a government with the Left Party. Any arrangement cutting across the traditional right-left divide would be difficult as well.

Sweden, a country of about 10.6 million people, is a member of the European Union and the newest member of NATO. With broad political agreement on issues such as support for Ukraine and joining NATO, much of the election debate focused on whether the Sweden Democrats would enter government, amid a wider backdrop of gains by the populist right in Europe. The party was founded in the 1980s by people linked to right-wing extremist groups, including neo-Nazis, but under leader Jimmie Akesson, who has led it since 2005, it moderated its rhetoric and expelled openly racist members. For now, the election has left Sweden facing a close count and the prospect of a complicated process to form its next government.