Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Poll Conducted with Trump’s Go-to Pollster

Democrat James Talarico held a 4-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a new AARP poll of the Texas Senate race, conducted in part by President Donald Trump’s go-to pollster.

The new poll published Thursday showed state Representative Talarico with 48 percent support and state Attorney General Ken Paxton with 44 percent in the Lone Star State. Fabrizio Ward, led by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, and Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted it. Fabrizio served as Trump's pollster during his presidential campaigns.

It comes as Republicans have descended on Dallas for the party’s unprecedented midterm convention this week. The convention is part of a plan to mobilize the GOP base ahead of the midterms to avert losses in key races, as polls show many Americans have soured on the Trump administration amid growing frustration with inflation, the economy and the war in Iran.

Trump offered praise for Paxton during a press conference on Thursday.

“I'm not sure if I like your look. I'm not sure if I like the way you dress. I don't like the way you talk. But you're the greatest attorney general, so therefore, that’s the only thing that matters,” he said. “He’s the best attorney general in the country.”

Talarico’s lead was bolstered by independent voters, who backed him in the poll by a 22-point margin, 55 percent to 33 percent. The poll also suggested Paxton still had work to do to consolidate the base—he received 83 percent support among Republicans, compared to Talarico’s 94 percent support among Democrats.

The Democratic candidate also received 9 percent support from Republicans, while Paxton’s support among Democrats stood at only 2 percent, according to the poll.

Talarico’s net favorability stood at +7 points, 42 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably, while Paxton’s stood at -11 points. Forty-six percent viewed Paxton unfavorably, while 35 percent viewed him favorably.

The poll surveyed 895 likely voters from August 30 to September 1, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

A flurry of recent polls have shown Talarico either tied with or leading Paxton in Texas. Here is a look at what the latest polls showed.

Prediction markets pointed to a close race. On Kalshi, Paxton and Talarico each had a 50 percent chance of winning the seat in November.

On Polymarket, both had a 51 percent chance. Prediction markets do not always add up perfectly to 100 percent.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

Republicans have been increasingly concerned about the Texas Senate race, and MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned Super PAC, revealed plans to spend $10 million in the race in an independent expenditure report filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on Saturday.

Senator Ted Cruz has said the election is a "real fight."

"We could lose Texas. This is a five-alarm fire right now, and every Republican, every conservative, every non-nuts commonsense Texan needs to understand the crazies are coming out in force," he said during an interview last month on the Lt. Dan podcast, hosted by Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.

Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist, previously told Newsweek the state is concerning for Republicans this year.

"Given what's going on in the world with the economy, with the war in Iran, and then with the sort of data center backlash happening, I think that this is definitely a competitive year for Democrats," Steinhauser said.

Paxton’s candidacy has long drawn concern from some Republicans. During the GOP primary, with an endorsement from Trump, the attorney general unseated longtime Senator John Cornyn.

Concerns stem from a series of personal scandals, including his 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House over articles alleging bribery and abuse of public trust.

The investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton's former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. Paxton has denied any wrongdoing.

Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate. He has described the impeachment as a "weaponization of our political system" that was "designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment."

Democrats have hoped to compete in several Texas statewide races over the past decade, believing that growth in Democratic-leaning cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their left-trending suburbs, could boost their chances of making the Lone Star State competitive.

There were signs that the GOP’s grip on the state slipped. From 2000 to 2020, Republican margins shifted from 21 points to fewer than 6 points at the presidential level. The state shifted back rightward in 2024, backing Trump by 14 points, in part due to the stronger national environment for Republicans and his inroads with Latino voters, but Democrats are still hopeful about the prospects of "Blue Texas."

Democrats believe Paxton’s candidacy, as well as the national environment being driven by Trump’s unpopularity, could make the state more competitive this year.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the race to be a toss-up. It will be closely watched as one of the most important Senate races of the midterms. Paxton and Talarico will spend the coming months making their cases to Texas voters.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas