Tasha Kheiriddin: Separatism is failing in Alberta and Quebec - National Post
Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon waves to his supporters as he arrives at the National Assembly in Quebec City on Wednesday September 9, 2026. Photo by Francis Vachon/PostmediaArticle contentQuebec and Alberta may have more in common than anyone suspected — at least when it comes to seceding from Canada. In both provinces, over 70 per cent of voters oppose separation, a question that is animating both the Quebec election and the Alberta referendum campaign. The two votes come to a head Oct. 5 and 19, respectively, and their outcome will not only decide if the two provinces proceed with a vote on separation, but whether Prime Minister Mark Carney will be able to put our national unity demons to sleep for the rest of his term.
In Quebec, voters are choosing between five parties, including the separatist Parti Québécois, which promises to hold a referendum in its first mandate — at least, as soon as U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon inserted that caveat early in the campaign, when it looked like the incumbent party, the Coalition Avenir Québec, might rebound under its new leader, Christine Fréchette. The former minister of the economy had leveraged Canada’s trade troubles with Trump to her advantage, appearing with Carney at several press conferences and playing to voters’ desire for security in uncertain times. She was rewarded by a bump in the polls — and speculation that she might even eke out a victory.
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Alas for Fréchette, the effect has faded, and the PQ now appears headed for a majority government. But it’s a paradox. According to a recent La Presse poll, only 29 per cent of Quebecers would vote yes to separation, while 71 per cent would vote no — a drop of five points for the yes side since Plamondon said he’d put off the vote. And if he held a referendum, the same survey found that two thirds of voters think his gambit would fail. It’s as though voters are giving a collective shrug to the possibility of leaving — and are willing to take a beau risque on his party.
In Alberta, meanwhile, a September survey by Janet Brown Opinion Research found that only 23 per cent of respondents said they’d vote to hold a formal referendum on separation, while 72 per cent would opt to remain in Canada, and four per cent were unsure. That’s a shift from 27 per cent for and 67 per cent against this past spring. Similarly to Quebec, it seems that the longer the separatists have to make their case, the less enthusiasm there is for change.
